Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by sticky inflation and a resilient labor market that tempers cut expectations. April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month after March's 0.9% gain, with core PCE annualized rates exceeding 5% in Q2 per Cleveland Fed estimates, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%. The Fed kept the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid an 8-4 divided vote signaling caution. Fed funds futures corroborate this hold near current levels, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.38%. A downside surprise in May CPI (June 10 release) or June FOMC signals could challenge consensus if inflation cools sharply or jobs weaken.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 92%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 5.3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.5%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.6%
$5,181,180 Vol.
$5,181,180 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
5%
Sin cambio
92%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 92%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 5.3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.5%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.6%
$5,181,180 Vol.
$5,181,180 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$482,935 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$375,846 Vol.
5%
Sin cambio
$577,962 Vol.
92%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,319,595 Vol.
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$424,841 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by sticky inflation and a resilient labor market that tempers cut expectations. April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month after March's 0.9% gain, with core PCE annualized rates exceeding 5% in Q2 per Cleveland Fed estimates, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%. The Fed kept the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid an 8-4 divided vote signaling caution. Fed funds futures corroborate this hold near current levels, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.38%. A downside surprise in May CPI (June 10 release) or June FOMC signals could challenge consensus if inflation cools sharply or jobs weaken.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,181,180Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by sticky inflation and a resilient labor market that tempers cut expectations. April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month after March's 0.9% gain, with core PCE annualized rates exceeding 5% in Q2 per Cleveland Fed estimates, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%. The Fed kept the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid an 8-4 divided vote signaling caution. Fed funds futures corroborate this hold near current levels, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.38%. A downside surprise in May CPI (June 10 release) or June FOMC signals could challenge consensus if inflation cools sharply or jobs weaken.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,181,180Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by sticky inflation and a resilient labor market that tempers cut expectations. April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month after March's 0.9% gain, with core PCE annualized rates exceeding 5% in Q2 per Cleveland Fed estimates, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%. The Fed kept the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in April amid an 8-4 divided vote signaling caution. Fed funds futures corroborate this hold near current levels, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.38%. A downside surprise in May CPI (June 10 release) or June FOMC signals could challenge consensus if inflation cools sharply or jobs weaken.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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