Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at 3.65% in March and April amid a resilient labor market—unemployment steady at 4.3%—and reaccelerating inflation hitting 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool's 95.9% odds for no change at the June 16-17 meeting, as sticky core inflation and solid job growth temper cut expectations per the March dot plot's median 3.4% year-end funds rate projection. Realistic challenges include today's April nonfarm payrolls revealing sharp labor weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown, potentially prompting a 25-basis-point cut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 2.9%
Otro 1.4%
$1,038,141 Vol.
$1,038,141 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
3%
Otro
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 2.9%
Otro 1.4%
$1,038,141 Vol.
$1,038,141 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$46,730 Vol.
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$23,101 Vol.
3%
Otro
$222,969 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at 3.65% in March and April amid a resilient labor market—unemployment steady at 4.3%—and reaccelerating inflation hitting 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool's 95.9% odds for no change at the June 16-17 meeting, as sticky core inflation and solid job growth temper cut expectations per the March dot plot's median 3.4% year-end funds rate projection. Realistic challenges include today's April nonfarm payrolls revealing sharp labor weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown, potentially prompting a 25-basis-point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,038,141Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at 3.65% in March and April amid a resilient labor market—unemployment steady at 4.3%—and reaccelerating inflation hitting 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool's 95.9% odds for no change at the June 16-17 meeting, as sticky core inflation and solid job growth temper cut expectations per the March dot plot's median 3.4% year-end funds rate projection. Realistic challenges include today's April nonfarm payrolls revealing sharp labor weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown, potentially prompting a 25-basis-point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,038,141Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at 3.65% in March and April amid a resilient labor market—unemployment steady at 4.3%—and reaccelerating inflation hitting 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool's 95.9% odds for no change at the June 16-17 meeting, as sticky core inflation and solid job growth temper cut expectations per the March dot plot's median 3.4% year-end funds rate projection. Realistic challenges include today's April nonfarm payrolls revealing sharp labor weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown, potentially prompting a 25-basis-point cut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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