Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March (confirmed), April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% in the dot plot. Sticky price pressures from recent energy spikes and resilient labor data—highlighted by the March ADP report of +62,000 private payrolls beating estimates—have dampened near-term rate cut expectations, with futures pricing minimal easing through mid-year. Officials' recent speeches underscore patience, citing balanced risks but elevated inflation persistence. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls this week ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 9%
Otro 5.8%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte 1.3%
$719,027 Vol.
$719,027 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
9%
Otro
6%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 9%
Otro 5.8%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte 1.3%
$719,027 Vol.
$719,027 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$21,008 Vol.
85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$11,277 Vol.
9%
Otro
$211,054 Vol.
6%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
$345,747 Vol.
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
$129,960 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March (confirmed), April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% in the dot plot. Sticky price pressures from recent energy spikes and resilient labor data—highlighted by the March ADP report of +62,000 private payrolls beating estimates—have dampened near-term rate cut expectations, with futures pricing minimal easing through mid-year. Officials' recent speeches underscore patience, citing balanced risks but elevated inflation persistence. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls this week ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$719,027Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March (confirmed), April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% in the dot plot. Sticky price pressures from recent energy spikes and resilient labor data—highlighted by the March ADP report of +62,000 private payrolls beating estimates—have dampened near-term rate cut expectations, with futures pricing minimal easing through mid-year. Officials' recent speeches underscore patience, citing balanced risks but elevated inflation persistence. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls this week ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$719,027Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to consecutive pauses at the March (confirmed), April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% in the dot plot. Sticky price pressures from recent energy spikes and resilient labor data—highlighted by the March ADP report of +62,000 private payrolls beating estimates—have dampened near-term rate cut expectations, with futures pricing minimal easing through mid-year. Officials' recent speeches underscore patience, citing balanced risks but elevated inflation persistence. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls this week ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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