Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an 85% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second straight meeting amid resilient economic growth and sticky inflation. The updated dot plot projected a median one cut later in 2026, signaling caution despite recent labor market softening—February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000—offset by expected March rebound and persistent pressures from surging oil prices and shelter costs. Upcoming March jobs data on April 4 and CPI on April 10 could influence April 28-29 expectations, where cut odds remain below 10%, underscoring limited near-term easing scope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 9%
Otro 5.8%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte 1.3%
$719,046 Vol.
$719,046 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
9%
Otro
6%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 9%
Otro 5.8%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte 1.3%
$719,046 Vol.
$719,046 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$21,008 Vol.
85%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$11,277 Vol.
9%
Otro
$211,054 Vol.
6%
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
$345,747 Vol.
1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
$129,960 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an 85% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second straight meeting amid resilient economic growth and sticky inflation. The updated dot plot projected a median one cut later in 2026, signaling caution despite recent labor market softening—February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000—offset by expected March rebound and persistent pressures from surging oil prices and shelter costs. Upcoming March jobs data on April 4 and CPI on April 10 could influence April 28-29 expectations, where cut odds remain below 10%, underscoring limited near-term easing scope.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$719,046Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an 85% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second straight meeting amid resilient economic growth and sticky inflation. The updated dot plot projected a median one cut later in 2026, signaling caution despite recent labor market softening—February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000—offset by expected March rebound and persistent pressures from surging oil prices and shelter costs. Upcoming March jobs data on April 4 and CPI on April 10 could influence April 28-29 expectations, where cut odds remain below 10%, underscoring limited near-term easing scope.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$719,046Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an 85% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second straight meeting amid resilient economic growth and sticky inflation. The updated dot plot projected a median one cut later in 2026, signaling caution despite recent labor market softening—February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000—offset by expected March rebound and persistent pressures from surging oil prices and shelter costs. Upcoming March jobs data on April 4 and CPI on April 10 could influence April 28-29 expectations, where cut odds remain below 10%, underscoring limited near-term easing scope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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