The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.5% reflects trader consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings. Recent inflation data, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced a cautious policy stance and shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Resilient labor market conditions and the April FOMC’s 8–4 vote to maintain current policy—despite some dissent—further anchor expectations for no near-term easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting, including an updated dot plot, remain key data points that could alter the path if incoming figures show meaningful disinflation or labor-market softening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 97.5%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 1.7%
Otro <1%
$1,232,816 Vol.
$1,232,816 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
98%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
2%
Otro
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 97.5%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 1.7%
Otro <1%
$1,232,816 Vol.
$1,232,816 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$132,943 Vol.
98%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$82,539 Vol.
2%
Otro
$271,992 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.5% reflects trader consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings. Recent inflation data, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced a cautious policy stance and shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Resilient labor market conditions and the April FOMC’s 8–4 vote to maintain current policy—despite some dissent—further anchor expectations for no near-term easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting, including an updated dot plot, remain key data points that could alter the path if incoming figures show meaningful disinflation or labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,232,816Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.5% reflects trader consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings. Recent inflation data, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced a cautious policy stance and shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Resilient labor market conditions and the April FOMC’s 8–4 vote to maintain current policy—despite some dissent—further anchor expectations for no near-term easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting, including an updated dot plot, remain key data points that could alter the path if incoming figures show meaningful disinflation or labor-market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,232,816Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.5% reflects trader consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings. Recent inflation data, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a sharp rise in energy prices, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced a cautious policy stance and shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Resilient labor market conditions and the April FOMC’s 8–4 vote to maintain current policy—despite some dissent—further anchor expectations for no near-term easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting, including an updated dot plot, remain key data points that could alter the path if incoming figures show meaningful disinflation or labor-market softening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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