Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game sentiment. This positioning stems from confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range in both the March 17–18 and April 28–29 meetings, amid sticky inflation evidenced by March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscore caution against cuts, citing persistent price pressures and potential for no easing in 2026. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and May nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they signal sharp cooling, prompting a reassessment toward the 2.6% Pause–Pause–Cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 2.6%
Otro 1.4%
$1,038,115 Vol.
$1,038,115 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
3%
Otro
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 2.6%
Otro 1.4%
$1,038,115 Vol.
$1,038,115 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$46,703 Vol.
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$23,101 Vol.
3%
Otro
$222,969 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game sentiment. This positioning stems from confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range in both the March 17–18 and April 28–29 meetings, amid sticky inflation evidenced by March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscore caution against cuts, citing persistent price pressures and potential for no easing in 2026. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and May nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they signal sharp cooling, prompting a reassessment toward the 2.6% Pause–Pause–Cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,038,115Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game sentiment. This positioning stems from confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range in both the March 17–18 and April 28–29 meetings, amid sticky inflation evidenced by March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscore caution against cuts, citing persistent price pressures and potential for no easing in 2026. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and May nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they signal sharp cooling, prompting a reassessment toward the 2.6% Pause–Pause–Cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,038,115Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game sentiment. This positioning stems from confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range in both the March 17–18 and April 28–29 meetings, amid sticky inflation evidenced by March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscore caution against cuts, citing persistent price pressures and potential for no easing in 2026. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and May nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they signal sharp cooling, prompting a reassessment toward the 2.6% Pause–Pause–Cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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