Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoRecorte–Pausa–Pausa 100.0%
Recorte–Recorte–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa <1%
$425,543 Vol.
$425,543 Vol.
18 mar 2026
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa
Sí
Recorte–Recorte–Pausa
No
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
No
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
No
Otro
No
Recorte–Pausa–Recorte
No
Recorte–Recorte–Recorte
No
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
No
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
No
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa 100.0%
Recorte–Recorte–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa <1%
$425,543 Vol.
$425,543 Vol.
18 mar 2026
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa
$0 Vol.
Sí
Recorte–Recorte–Pausa
$77,631 Vol.
No
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
$93,636 Vol.
No
Pausa–Recorte–Pausa
$17,102 Vol.
No
Otro
$0 Vol.
No
Recorte–Pausa–Recorte
$0 Vol.
No
Recorte–Recorte–Recorte
$198,337 Vol.
No
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$19,540 Vol.
No
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
$19,297 Vol.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ET
Volumen
$425,543Fecha de finalización
18 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$425,543Fecha de finalización
18 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes