The 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading around 4.25%, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures amid resilient economic growth, with January 2025 CPI data showing a 3.0% year-over-year rise exceeding forecasts and core inflation at 3.3%. This follows the Federal Reserve's December 2024 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.25-4.50%, but hawkish FOMC projections for only two 2025 cuts have anchored market-implied paths higher, supported by strong January nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 jobs. Yields spiked 15 basis points post-CPI, pricing in delayed easing. Key catalysts ahead include February 12 CPI release and the March 18-19 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations before the March 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años para el 31 de marzo?
¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años para el 31 de marzo?
$207,450 Vol.
4,4%
50%
4.5%
4%
4,6%
4%
4,8%
2%
5.0%
2%
$207,450 Vol.
4,4%
50%
4.5%
4%
4,6%
4%
4,8%
2%
5.0%
2%
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading around 4.25%, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures amid resilient economic growth, with January 2025 CPI data showing a 3.0% year-over-year rise exceeding forecasts and core inflation at 3.3%. This follows the Federal Reserve's December 2024 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.25-4.50%, but hawkish FOMC projections for only two 2025 cuts have anchored market-implied paths higher, supported by strong January nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 jobs. Yields spiked 15 basis points post-CPI, pricing in delayed easing. Key catalysts ahead include February 12 CPI release and the March 18-19 FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate expectations before the March 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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