Polymarket traders price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end 2026 per FOMC dots, and recent speeches like Richmond Fed's Jefferson noting stable hiring and elevated price pressures, reinforce the pause narrative, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening nonfarm payrolls, potentially reviving cut odds below 1%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 98.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$43,655,083 Vol.
$43,655,083 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
98%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 98.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$43,655,083 Vol.
$43,655,083 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$15,405,362 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$9,024,225 Vol.
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
$9,189,627 Vol.
98%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
$10,036,934 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end 2026 per FOMC dots, and recent speeches like Richmond Fed's Jefferson noting stable hiring and elevated price pressures, reinforce the pause narrative, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening nonfarm payrolls, potentially reviving cut odds below 1%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$43,655,083Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end 2026 per FOMC dots, and recent speeches like Richmond Fed's Jefferson noting stable hiring and elevated price pressures, reinforce the pause narrative, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening nonfarm payrolls, potentially reviving cut odds below 1%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$43,655,083Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 98% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end 2026 per FOMC dots, and recent speeches like Richmond Fed's Jefferson noting stable hiring and elevated price pressures, reinforce the pause narrative, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening nonfarm payrolls, potentially reviving cut odds below 1%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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