Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, with recent minutes highlighting that persistent inflation above the 2% goal could warrant policy firming rather than easing. FOMC projections from March show 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%, supporting a data-dependent pause. Upcoming June CPI and FOMC releases remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift this positioning before the September 15-16 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$177,486 Vol.
$177,486 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$177,486 Vol.
$177,486 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,148 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$34,067 Vol.
3%
No change
$37,180 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,034 Vol.
19%
50+ bps increase
$33,685 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, with recent minutes highlighting that persistent inflation above the 2% goal could warrant policy firming rather than easing. FOMC projections from March show 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%, supporting a data-dependent pause. Upcoming June CPI and FOMC releases remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift this positioning before the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$177,486Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, with recent minutes highlighting that persistent inflation above the 2% goal could warrant policy firming rather than easing. FOMC projections from March show 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%, supporting a data-dependent pause. Upcoming June CPI and FOMC releases remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift this positioning before the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$177,486Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, with recent minutes highlighting that persistent inflation above the 2% goal could warrant policy firming rather than easing. FOMC projections from March show 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%, supporting a data-dependent pause. Upcoming June CPI and FOMC releases remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift this positioning before the September 15-16 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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