Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and geopolitical pressures, combined with resilient labor market data—May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—have anchored trader expectations for no rate change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent strong employment figures and upward revisions have reinforced the case for holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, while futures and economist surveys show limited support for easing this year. Markets assign modest odds to a 25 basis point hike amid discussions of removing easing language at the upcoming June meeting, reflecting concerns that price pressures could prompt tighter policy later in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 67%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$286,569 Vol.
$286,569 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 67%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$286,569 Vol.
$286,569 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$51,614 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$62,216 Vol.
9%
No change
$81,892 Vol.
67%
25 bps increase
$58,241 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$47,190 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and geopolitical pressures, combined with resilient labor market data—May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—have anchored trader expectations for no rate change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent strong employment figures and upward revisions have reinforced the case for holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, while futures and economist surveys show limited support for easing this year. Markets assign modest odds to a 25 basis point hike amid discussions of removing easing language at the upcoming June meeting, reflecting concerns that price pressures could prompt tighter policy later in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$286,569Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and geopolitical pressures, combined with resilient labor market data—May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—have anchored trader expectations for no rate change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent strong employment figures and upward revisions have reinforced the case for holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, while futures and economist surveys show limited support for easing this year. Markets assign modest odds to a 25 basis point hike amid discussions of removing easing language at the upcoming June meeting, reflecting concerns that price pressures could prompt tighter policy later in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$286,569Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and geopolitical pressures, combined with resilient labor market data—May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—have anchored trader expectations for no rate change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent strong employment figures and upward revisions have reinforced the case for holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range, while futures and economist surveys show limited support for easing this year. Markets assign modest odds to a 25 basis point hike amid discussions of removing easing language at the upcoming June meeting, reflecting concerns that price pressures could prompt tighter policy later in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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