Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady payroll gains, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes highlight committee concerns over persistent above-target inflation and the potential for policy firming if price pressures continue, reinforcing the data-dependent stance that favors holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% range. This backdrop explains the 79.5% implied probability for no change, with limited odds on modest hikes or cuts reflecting uncertainty around upcoming inflation and employment releases before the September decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 80%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$161,918 Vol.
$161,918 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
80%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 80%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$161,918 Vol.
$161,918 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$34,260 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$32,462 Vol.
3%
No change
$35,665 Vol.
80%
25 bps increase
$30,847 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$33,515 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady payroll gains, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes highlight committee concerns over persistent above-target inflation and the potential for policy firming if price pressures continue, reinforcing the data-dependent stance that favors holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% range. This backdrop explains the 79.5% implied probability for no change, with limited odds on modest hikes or cuts reflecting uncertainty around upcoming inflation and employment releases before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$161,918Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady payroll gains, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes highlight committee concerns over persistent above-target inflation and the potential for policy firming if price pressures continue, reinforcing the data-dependent stance that favors holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% range. This backdrop explains the 79.5% implied probability for no change, with limited odds on modest hikes or cuts reflecting uncertainty around upcoming inflation and employment releases before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$161,918Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and steady payroll gains, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes highlight committee concerns over persistent above-target inflation and the potential for policy firming if price pressures continue, reinforcing the data-dependent stance that favors holding the federal funds rate at its current 3.50%-3.75% range. This backdrop explains the 79.5% implied probability for no change, with limited odds on modest hikes or cuts reflecting uncertainty around upcoming inflation and employment releases before the September decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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