Recent labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 decision. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent, while April CPI printed 3.8 percent year-over-year, reinforcing the view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent federal funds target range remains appropriate. These data points, released in early June, have shifted implied probabilities toward no change at 75.5 percent while lifting the odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 19.5 percent. Market participants continue to monitor the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC communications for any signals that could alter the data-dependent path through the summer.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$178,375 Vol.
$178,375 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$178,375 Vol.
$178,375 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,198 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$34,124 Vol.
3%
No change
$37,230 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,084 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$33,738 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 decision. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent, while April CPI printed 3.8 percent year-over-year, reinforcing the view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent federal funds target range remains appropriate. These data points, released in early June, have shifted implied probabilities toward no change at 75.5 percent while lifting the odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 19.5 percent. Market participants continue to monitor the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC communications for any signals that could alter the data-dependent path through the summer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$178,375Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 decision. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent, while April CPI printed 3.8 percent year-over-year, reinforcing the view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent federal funds target range remains appropriate. These data points, released in early June, have shifted implied probabilities toward no change at 75.5 percent while lifting the odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 19.5 percent. Market participants continue to monitor the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC communications for any signals that could alter the data-dependent path through the summer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$178,375Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 decision. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent, while April CPI printed 3.8 percent year-over-year, reinforcing the view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent federal funds target range remains appropriate. These data points, released in early June, have shifted implied probabilities toward no change at 75.5 percent while lifting the odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 19.5 percent. Market participants continue to monitor the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC communications for any signals that could alter the data-dependent path through the summer.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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