Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and expectations for May near 4.2% driven by energy prices, alongside a labor market showing low average job gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. This supports the 75.5% implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, reflecting caution from incoming Chair Kevin Warsh and recent FOMC communications emphasizing risks to both sides of the dual mandate. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts absent clearer disinflation or labor weakness, with upcoming June CPI, employment data, and the June 16-17 FOMC decision as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
5%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$181 Vol.
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Vol.
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 Vol.
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Vol.
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
5%
Other
$169 Vol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and expectations for May near 4.2% driven by energy prices, alongside a labor market showing low average job gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. This supports the 75.5% implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, reflecting caution from incoming Chair Kevin Warsh and recent FOMC communications emphasizing risks to both sides of the dual mandate. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts absent clearer disinflation or labor weakness, with upcoming June CPI, employment data, and the June 16-17 FOMC decision as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$2,277Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and expectations for May near 4.2% driven by energy prices, alongside a labor market showing low average job gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. This supports the 75.5% implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, reflecting caution from incoming Chair Kevin Warsh and recent FOMC communications emphasizing risks to both sides of the dual mandate. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts absent clearer disinflation or labor weakness, with upcoming June CPI, employment data, and the June 16-17 FOMC decision as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$2,277Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and expectations for May near 4.2% driven by energy prices, alongside a labor market showing low average job gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. This supports the 75.5% implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, reflecting caution from incoming Chair Kevin Warsh and recent FOMC communications emphasizing risks to both sides of the dual mandate. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts absent clearer disinflation or labor weakness, with upcoming June CPI, employment data, and the June 16-17 FOMC decision as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes