**Trader sentiment on the Fed's June-through-September 2026 decisions reflects a data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation and resilient growth.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% at both the June and July FOMC meetings, the 40.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause captures expectations that the September 15–16 gathering will also deliver no change, consistent with the Committee's emphasis on further evidence of disinflation. The dominant 59.5% weighting on "Other" incorporates residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike, fueled by three dissents at the July meeting, elevated PCE readings above the 2% target, and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The near-zero 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited scope for easing, as labor-market stability and anchored longer-term inflation expectations keep monetary policy on hold. Upcoming September data releases and Chair Warsh's communications remain key swing factors for final pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOther 59%
Pause–Pause–Pause 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,019 Vol.
$823,019 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
41%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
59%
Other 59%
Pause–Pause–Pause 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,019 Vol.
$823,019 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$315,338 Vol.
41%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,796 Vol.
1%
Other
$356,009 Vol.
59%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader sentiment on the Fed's June-through-September 2026 decisions reflects a data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation and resilient growth.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% at both the June and July FOMC meetings, the 40.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause captures expectations that the September 15–16 gathering will also deliver no change, consistent with the Committee's emphasis on further evidence of disinflation. The dominant 59.5% weighting on "Other" incorporates residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike, fueled by three dissents at the July meeting, elevated PCE readings above the 2% target, and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The near-zero 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited scope for easing, as labor-market stability and anchored longer-term inflation expectations keep monetary policy on hold. Upcoming September data releases and Chair Warsh's communications remain key swing factors for final pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$823,019Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader sentiment on the Fed's June-through-September 2026 decisions reflects a data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation and resilient growth.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% at both the June and July FOMC meetings, the 40.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause captures expectations that the September 15–16 gathering will also deliver no change, consistent with the Committee's emphasis on further evidence of disinflation. The dominant 59.5% weighting on "Other" incorporates residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike, fueled by three dissents at the July meeting, elevated PCE readings above the 2% target, and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The near-zero 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited scope for easing, as labor-market stability and anchored longer-term inflation expectations keep monetary policy on hold. Upcoming September data releases and Chair Warsh's communications remain key swing factors for final pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$823,019Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on the Fed's June-through-September 2026 decisions reflects a data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation and resilient growth.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% at both the June and July FOMC meetings, the 40.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause captures expectations that the September 15–16 gathering will also deliver no change, consistent with the Committee's emphasis on further evidence of disinflation. The dominant 59.5% weighting on "Other" incorporates residual risks of a 25-basis-point hike, fueled by three dissents at the July meeting, elevated PCE readings above the 2% target, and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The near-zero 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited scope for easing, as labor-market stability and anchored longer-term inflation expectations keep monetary policy on hold. Upcoming September data releases and Chair Warsh's communications remain key swing factors for final pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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