Recent economic data have reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its federal funds rate target in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year and core PCE remaining above the 2% target amid higher energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader consensus toward a pause-pause-pause path. These factors outweigh signals of gradual cooling, producing the current 73.5% implied probability for no rate changes. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and accompanying dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could alter pricing if inflation moderates or employment weakens more than anticipated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 6.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
6%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 6.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Vol.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Vol.
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Vol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
6%
Other
$122 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data have reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its federal funds rate target in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year and core PCE remaining above the 2% target amid higher energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader consensus toward a pause-pause-pause path. These factors outweigh signals of gradual cooling, producing the current 73.5% implied probability for no rate changes. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and accompanying dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could alter pricing if inflation moderates or employment weakens more than anticipated.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,450Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data have reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its federal funds rate target in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year and core PCE remaining above the 2% target amid higher energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader consensus toward a pause-pause-pause path. These factors outweigh signals of gradual cooling, producing the current 73.5% implied probability for no rate changes. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and accompanying dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could alter pricing if inflation moderates or employment weakens more than anticipated.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,450Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data have reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its federal funds rate target in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI near 3.8% year-over-year and core PCE remaining above the 2% target amid higher energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader consensus toward a pause-pause-pause path. These factors outweigh signals of gradual cooling, producing the current 73.5% implied probability for no rate changes. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and accompanying dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could alter pricing if inflation moderates or employment weakens more than anticipated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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