Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored trader expectations for holds across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market firm at 4.3% unemployment plus solid May payrolls, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause as policymakers await clearer evidence that the energy-driven inflation impulse has peaked. Recent FOMC communications indicate a preference for data-dependent patience over near-term easing, though upcoming June CPI and employment releases could still influence the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
10%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$286 Vol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Vol.
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 Vol.
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Vol.
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
10%
Other
$169 Vol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored trader expectations for holds across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market firm at 4.3% unemployment plus solid May payrolls, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause as policymakers await clearer evidence that the energy-driven inflation impulse has peaked. Recent FOMC communications indicate a preference for data-dependent patience over near-term easing, though upcoming June CPI and employment releases could still influence the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$2,382Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored trader expectations for holds across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market firm at 4.3% unemployment plus solid May payrolls, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause as policymakers await clearer evidence that the energy-driven inflation impulse has peaked. Recent FOMC communications indicate a preference for data-dependent patience over near-term easing, though upcoming June CPI and employment releases could still influence the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$2,382Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored trader expectations for holds across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market firm at 4.3% unemployment plus solid May payrolls, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus for Pause–Pause–Pause as policymakers await clearer evidence that the energy-driven inflation impulse has peaked. Recent FOMC communications indicate a preference for data-dependent patience over near-term easing, though upcoming June CPI and employment releases could still influence the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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