The 95.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" on Jerome Powell entering jail before 2027 stems from the total absence of credible legal accusations or investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair, whose impeccable 30-year central banking career shows no hint of impropriety. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital on Polymarket, views this as a negligible-risk event amid Powell's focus on monetary policy amid cooling inflation and steady growth. Tail risks, though remote, include hypothetical extreme political upheavals—like a radical regime shift triggering fabricated charges with swift conviction—but historical precedents for incarcerating sitting Fed chairs are nonexistent, reinforcing high-confidence positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$3,046Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,046Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 95.5% market-implied probability favoring "No" on Jerome Powell entering jail before 2027 stems from the total absence of credible legal accusations or investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair, whose impeccable 30-year central banking career shows no hint of impropriety. Trader consensus, backed by substantial capital on Polymarket, views this as a negligible-risk event amid Powell's focus on monetary policy amid cooling inflation and steady growth. Tail risks, though remote, include hypothetical extreme political upheavals—like a radical regime shift triggering fabricated charges with swift conviction—but historical precedents for incarcerating sitting Fed chairs are nonexistent, reinforcing high-confidence positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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