Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% odds for "No" on Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, driven primarily by the total absence of credible legal proceedings, indictments, or investigations against the Federal Reserve Chair, whose tenure runs through May 2026. Powell's unblemished record as a career central banker, recent congressional testimonies focused solely on monetary policy amid cooling inflation (CPI at 2.5% YoY), and institutional safeguards insulating Fed leaders from politicized prosecutions underpin this high confidence. Tail risks—such as extreme post-election retribution or fabricated scandals—remain negligible, with historical precedent showing no Fed chair ever criminally charged, preserving market-implied stability.