Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low probability for Iranian military action against Israel by March 31, driven by de-escalation since October 2024's missile exchanges, where Iran's barrage prompted Israel's targeted strikes on air defenses without broader retaliation. Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have faced setbacks from Israeli operations and U.S. strikes, constraining Tehran's options amid economic pressures and sanctions. No confirmed intelligence points to imminent attacks, though rhetoric persists. Key upcoming catalysts include Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, potentially hardening U.S. deterrence, and any Gaza ceasefire developments that could alter regional dynamics. Markets reflect caution, with odds stable absent new triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$2,334,865 Vol.
UAE
73%
Saudi Arabia
91%
Bahrain
75%
Iraq
46%
Jordan
43%
Oman
11%
Turquía
7%
Azerbaijan
6%
Chipre
4%
Líbano
4%
Pakistán
3%
Armenia
3%
Siria
3%
Yemen
3%
Germany
2%
Reino Unido
2%
Hungary
2%
Afganistán
1%
Spain
1%
Ukraine
1%
Italy
1%
Georgia
1%
India
1%
Poland
1%
France
1%
$2,334,865 Vol.
UAE
73%
Saudi Arabia
91%
Bahrain
75%
Iraq
46%
Jordan
43%
Oman
11%
Turquía
7%
Azerbaijan
6%
Chipre
4%
Líbano
4%
Pakistán
3%
Armenia
3%
Siria
3%
Yemen
3%
Germany
2%
Reino Unido
2%
Hungary
2%
Afganistán
1%
Spain
1%
Ukraine
1%
Italy
1%
Georgia
1%
India
1%
Poland
1%
France
1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low probability for Iranian military action against Israel by March 31, driven by de-escalation since October 2024's missile exchanges, where Iran's barrage prompted Israel's targeted strikes on air defenses without broader retaliation. Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have faced setbacks from Israeli operations and U.S. strikes, constraining Tehran's options amid economic pressures and sanctions. No confirmed intelligence points to imminent attacks, though rhetoric persists. Key upcoming catalysts include Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, potentially hardening U.S. deterrence, and any Gaza ceasefire developments that could alter regional dynamics. Markets reflect caution, with odds stable absent new triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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