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Mundo·Oriente Medio

Iran leader end of 2026?

Market icon
Mundo·Oriente Medio

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 24.3%

Reza Pahlavi 17%

Masoud Pezeshkian 14%

No Head of State 12.2%

Polymarket

$212,128 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 24.3%

Reza Pahlavi 17%

Masoud Pezeshkian 14%

No Head of State 12.2%

Polymarket

$212,128 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$46,295 Vol.

24%

Reza Pahlavi

$18,696 Vol.

17%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$6,243 Vol.

14%

No Head of State

$5,210 Vol.

12%

Hassan Khomeini

$5,085 Vol.

6%

Alireza Arafi

$4,296 Vol.

5%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$2,575 Vol.

4%

Ali Larijani

$3,673 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$12,091 Vol.

2%

Mohsen Araki

$2,156 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$6,085 Vol.

2%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$30,625 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$2,616 Vol.

1%

Saeed Jalili

$5,106 Vol.

1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$4,274 Vol.

1%

Navid Shomali

$1,938 Vol.

1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$1,907 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$2,656 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$2,212 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$2,191 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$2,171 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$3,045 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$2,375 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$2,516 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$2,045 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$1,957 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$2,319 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$1,146 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$2,715 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$1,997 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$212,128
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 24%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $212.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.