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Geopolítica·Envío

¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Envío

¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?

abr 30

abr 30

4–5 29.8%

8–9 20.4%

6–7 16.0%

2–3 14%

Polymarket

$79,629 Vol.

4–5 29.8%

8–9 20.4%

6–7 16.0%

2–3 14%

Polymarket

$79,629 Vol.

2–3

$19,758 Vol.

14%

4–5

$16,770 Vol.

30%

6–7

$5,416 Vol.

15%

8–9

$8,284 Vol.

20%

10+

$4,670 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's IRGC Navy fired on at least two merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, hitting an Indian-flagged supertanker and a tanker near Oman, forcing retreats amid Tehran's reimposition of restrictions following a failed truce with the US over its naval blockade of Iranian ports. This fresh escalation in the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis—where shipping has faced intermittent closures since late February—has anchored trader consensus around 4–5 successful targets (32%) by April 30, reflecting limited April actions so far (roughly two prior confirmed hits) against March's higher toll of over 20. The 8–9 cluster (21%) gains traction if Iran's retaliation intensifies with more transit attempts, while lower bands like 2–3 hinge on de-escalation via US-led mine-clearing or allied escorts; higher outcomes risk diplomatic breakthroughs or IRGC constraints from prior airstrikes, keeping the field competitive amid peace talks and potential coalition naval patrols.

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$79,629
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's IRGC Navy fired on at least two merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, hitting an Indian-flagged supertanker and a tanker near Oman, forcing retreats amid Tehran's reimposition of restrictions following a failed truce with the US over its naval blockade of Iranian ports. This fresh escalation in the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis—where shipping has faced intermittent closures since late February—has anchored trader consensus around 4–5 successful targets (32%) by April 30, reflecting limited April actions so far (roughly two prior confirmed hits) against March's higher toll of over 20. The 8–9 cluster (21%) gains traction if Iran's retaliation intensifies with more transit attempts, while lower bands like 2–3 hinge on de-escalation via US-led mine-clearing or allied escorts; higher outcomes risk diplomatic breakthroughs or IRGC constraints from prior airstrikes, keeping the field competitive amid peace talks and potential coalition naval patrols.

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$79,629
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "4–5" con 30%, seguido de "8–9" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?" ha generado $79.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 24, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?" es "4–5" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "8–9" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.