Fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks, mediated by Pakistan since early April, have stalled amid rejections of proposals over nuclear enrichment caps, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, with President Trump declaring the truce "on life support" as of May 12 following Iran's latest counteroffer. Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in Lebanon remain a key obstacle, blocking broader de-escalation despite a separate Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. No direct bilateral negotiations exist between Israel and Iran, whose longstanding enmity—fueled by proxy conflicts, military strikes since February's war onset, and irreconcilable demands on security and regional influence—poses massive barriers to any permanent peace treaty. Traders eye upcoming potential US envoy meetings in Pakistan, but deep mistrust and unresolved core issues dominate sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$821,577 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 31
3%
30 de junio
17%
$821,577 Vol.
May 31
$238,549 Vol.
3%
30 de junio
$269,663 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks, mediated by Pakistan since early April, have stalled amid rejections of proposals over nuclear enrichment caps, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, with President Trump declaring the truce "on life support" as of May 12 following Iran's latest counteroffer. Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in Lebanon remain a key obstacle, blocking broader de-escalation despite a separate Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. No direct bilateral negotiations exist between Israel and Iran, whose longstanding enmity—fueled by proxy conflicts, military strikes since February's war onset, and irreconcilable demands on security and regional influence—poses massive barriers to any permanent peace treaty. Traders eye upcoming potential US envoy meetings in Pakistan, but deep mistrust and unresolved core issues dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volumen
$821,577Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks, mediated by Pakistan since early April, have stalled amid rejections of proposals over nuclear enrichment caps, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, with President Trump declaring the truce "on life support" as of May 12 following Iran's latest counteroffer. Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in Lebanon remain a key obstacle, blocking broader de-escalation despite a separate Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. No direct bilateral negotiations exist between Israel and Iran, whose longstanding enmity—fueled by proxy conflicts, military strikes since February's war onset, and irreconcilable demands on security and regional influence—poses massive barriers to any permanent peace treaty. Traders eye upcoming potential US envoy meetings in Pakistan, but deep mistrust and unresolved core issues dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$821,577Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks, mediated by Pakistan since early April, have stalled amid rejections of proposals over nuclear enrichment caps, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, with President Trump declaring the truce "on life support" as of May 12 following Iran's latest counteroffer. Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in Lebanon remain a key obstacle, blocking broader de-escalation despite a separate Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. No direct bilateral negotiations exist between Israel and Iran, whose longstanding enmity—fueled by proxy conflicts, military strikes since February's war onset, and irreconcilable demands on security and regional influence—poses massive barriers to any permanent peace treaty. Traders eye upcoming potential US envoy meetings in Pakistan, but deep mistrust and unresolved core issues dominate sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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