Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$239,031 Vol.
$239,031 Vol.
26 abr 2026
<25
No
25-49
Yes
50-74
No
75-99
No
100-124
No
125-149
No
150+
No
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$239,031 Vol.
$239,031 Vol.
26 abr 2026
<25
$62,722 Vol.
No
25-49
$40,738 Vol.
Yes
50-74
$39,292 Vol.
No
75-99
$34,876 Vol.
No
100-124
$13,230 Vol.
No
125-149
$15,343 Vol.
No
150+
$32,829 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 17, 2026, 11:31 AM ET
Volumen
$239,031Fecha de finalización
26 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$239,031Fecha de finalización
26 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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