Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently running at roughly 1% of pre-conflict daily transits amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by end of June. A conditional ceasefire took effect in early April, yet commercial flows remain constrained by Iranian routing requirements, elevated insurance premiums, and U.S. naval enforcement actions that continue to deter full resumption. Recent maritime data show only a handful of vessels transiting daily versus the historical average of 60 or more, with hundreds of tankers still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope or anchored awaiting safer passage. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the risk of renewed escalation, though any breakthrough in ongoing diplomatic talks could shift sentiment ahead of the June resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad a finales de junio?
¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad a finales de junio?
Sí
$6,977,710 Vol.
$6,977,710 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$6,977,710 Vol.
$6,977,710 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently running at roughly 1% of pre-conflict daily transits amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by end of June. A conditional ceasefire took effect in early April, yet commercial flows remain constrained by Iranian routing requirements, elevated insurance premiums, and U.S. naval enforcement actions that continue to deter full resumption. Recent maritime data show only a handful of vessels transiting daily versus the historical average of 60 or more, with hundreds of tankers still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope or anchored awaiting safer passage. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the risk of renewed escalation, though any breakthrough in ongoing diplomatic talks could shift sentiment ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volumen
$6,977,710Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently running at roughly 1% of pre-conflict daily transits amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by end of June. A conditional ceasefire took effect in early April, yet commercial flows remain constrained by Iranian routing requirements, elevated insurance premiums, and U.S. naval enforcement actions that continue to deter full resumption. Recent maritime data show only a handful of vessels transiting daily versus the historical average of 60 or more, with hundreds of tankers still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope or anchored awaiting safer passage. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the risk of renewed escalation, though any breakthrough in ongoing diplomatic talks could shift sentiment ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$6,985,169Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently running at roughly 1% of pre-conflict daily transits amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by end of June. A conditional ceasefire took effect in early April, yet commercial flows remain constrained by Iranian routing requirements, elevated insurance premiums, and U.S. naval enforcement actions that continue to deter full resumption. Recent maritime data show only a handful of vessels transiting daily versus the historical average of 60 or more, with hundreds of tankers still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope or anchored awaiting safer passage. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the risk of renewed escalation, though any breakthrough in ongoing diplomatic talks could shift sentiment ahead of the June resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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