Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPromedio # de barcos que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz el 19 de abril?
Promedio # de barcos que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz el 19 de abril?
12-15 100.0%
<4 <1%
4-7 <1%
8-11 <1%
$123,841 Vol.
$123,841 Vol.
19 abr 2026
<4
No
4-7
No
8-11
No
12-15
Yes
16-19
No
20+
No
12-15 100.0%
<4 <1%
4-7 <1%
8-11 <1%
$123,841 Vol.
$123,841 Vol.
19 abr 2026
<4
$10,144 Vol.
No
4-7
$9,051 Vol.
No
8-11
$8,943 Vol.
No
12-15
$72,420 Vol.
Yes
16-19
$9,494 Vol.
No
20+
$13,789 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volumen
$123,841Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Volumen
$123,841Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to 12-15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, 2026, backed by skin-in-the-game capital aligning with real-time AIS data from Windward, Kpler, and MarineTraffic confirming low-teens transits amid the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, but US-Iran ceasefire terms cap Iranian approvals at around 15 per day, compounded by recent vessel attacks, IRGC closure threats, and blockade enforcement deterring traffic—evident in April 18's 35 transits rebounding from prior near-halts. This strong positioning holds despite source variances (e.g., isolated reports of 2-3 crossings); realistic challenges include IMF PortWatch revisions or disputes over inbound/outbound counting methodologies prior to final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes