A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect November 27, 2024, halting 14 months of intense cross-border exchanges that included Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and repeated rocket barrages. Key terms mandate Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces south of the Blue Line, and UNIFIL monitoring, but mutual accusations of violations—Israeli strikes and alleged Hezbollah drones—emerged immediately, signaling fragility. Facilitated by envoy Amos Hochstein amid Gaza truce momentum, the 60-day pact faces tests from residual militant presence, Netanyahu's security demands, and Hezbollah's Iran ties. Traders eye UN enforcement reports, escalation signals, and extension talks as pivotal for durability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Israel x Hezbollah alto el fuego por...?
¿Israel x Hezbollah alto el fuego por...?
$370,392 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
31 de marzo
2%
30 de junio
42%
30 de abril
16%
$370,392 Vol.
31 de marzo
$331,062 Vol.
2%
30 de junio
$37,973 Vol.
42%
30 de abril
$1,358 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect November 27, 2024, halting 14 months of intense cross-border exchanges that included Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and repeated rocket barrages. Key terms mandate Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces south of the Blue Line, and UNIFIL monitoring, but mutual accusations of violations—Israeli strikes and alleged Hezbollah drones—emerged immediately, signaling fragility. Facilitated by envoy Amos Hochstein amid Gaza truce momentum, the 60-day pact faces tests from residual militant presence, Netanyahu's security demands, and Hezbollah's Iran ties. Traders eye UN enforcement reports, escalation signals, and extension talks as pivotal for durability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$370,392Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect November 27, 2024, halting 14 months of intense cross-border exchanges that included Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and repeated rocket barrages. Key terms mandate Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces south of the Blue Line, and UNIFIL monitoring, but mutual accusations of violations—Israeli strikes and alleged Hezbollah drones—emerged immediately, signaling fragility. Facilitated by envoy Amos Hochstein amid Gaza truce momentum, the 60-day pact faces tests from residual militant presence, Netanyahu's security demands, and Hezbollah's Iran ties. Traders eye UN enforcement reports, escalation signals, and extension talks as pivotal for durability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$370,392Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect November 27, 2024, halting 14 months of intense cross-border exchanges that included Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon and repeated rocket barrages. Key terms mandate Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces south of the Blue Line, and UNIFIL monitoring, but mutual accusations of violations—Israeli strikes and alleged Hezbollah drones—emerged immediately, signaling fragility. Facilitated by envoy Amos Hochstein amid Gaza truce momentum, the 60-day pact faces tests from residual militant presence, Netanyahu's security demands, and Hezbollah's Iran ties. Traders eye UN enforcement reports, escalation signals, and extension talks as pivotal for durability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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