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Geopolítica·Barco

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Barco

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

30-34 39%

15-19 32%

35-39 28%

40-44 19%

Polymarket
NEW

30-34 39%

15-19 32%

35-39 28%

40-44 19%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$930 Vol.

3%

10-14

$198 Vol.

15%

15-19

$68 Vol.

21%

20-24

$53 Vol.

18%

25-29

$61 Vol.

18%

30-34

$94 Vol.

29%

35-39

$33 Vol.

18%

40-44

$161 Vol.

19%

45+

$630 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 30-34 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 33.5%, aligning with stable recent weekly averages of 28-35 vessels reported via AIS tracking and UKMTO logs, unaffected by the past week's focus on Red Sea Houthi disruptions following U.S. airstrikes on March 15-16. No new Iranian naval seizures, IRGC patrols, or explicit Hormuz threats have emerged in the last 48 hours, sustaining normal commercial flows of oil tankers and LNG carriers from Persian Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Lower ranges like 15-19 draw support from Ramadan-related slowdowns or weather delays, while 40-44 could rise on surging Qatar LNG exports; early-week AIS data through March 24-25 will likely consolidate odds around historical norms absent escalation.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$2,230
Fecha de finalización
Mar 29, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 30-34 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 33.5%, aligning with stable recent weekly averages of 28-35 vessels reported via AIS tracking and UKMTO logs, unaffected by the past week's focus on Red Sea Houthi disruptions following U.S. airstrikes on March 15-16. No new Iranian naval seizures, IRGC patrols, or explicit Hormuz threats have emerged in the last 48 hours, sustaining normal commercial flows of oil tankers and LNG carriers from Persian Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Lower ranges like 15-19 draw support from Ramadan-related slowdowns or weather delays, while 40-44 could rise on surging Qatar LNG exports; early-week AIS data through March 24-25 will likely consolidate odds around historical norms absent escalation.

Trader consensus favors 30-34 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 33.5%, aligning with stable recent weekly averages of 28-35 vessels reported via AIS tracking and UKMTO logs, unaffected by the past week's focus on Red Sea Houthi disruptions following U.S. airstrikes on March 15-16. No new Iranian naval seizures, IRGC patrols, or explicit Hormuz threats have emerged in the last 48 hours, sustaining normal commercial flows of oil tankers and LNG carriers from Persian Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Lower ranges like 15-19 draw support from Ramadan-related slowdowns or weather delays, while 40-44 could rise on surging Qatar LNG exports; early-week AIS data through March 24-25 will likely consolidate odds around historical norms absent escalation.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "30-34" con 29%, seguido de "15-19" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 29¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" es "30-34" con 29%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "15-19" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.