Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Khondab and military targets in Shiraz over the past week, coupled with strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah and explosions in Damascus, Syria, underpin trader consensus for 2-3 countries in April as the baseline amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28. IDF statements confirm operational plans through Passover (early April) with thousands of remaining targets, while faltering ceasefire talks and Houthi threats from Yemen keep ≥4 viable if escalation draws in additional fronts like Iraqi militias. The tight race reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus retaliatory spirals, with ≤1 improbable barring abrupt de-escalation at upcoming UN Security Council discussions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
8%
2
43%
3
43%
≥4
41%
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$0 Vol.
8%
2
$1 Vol.
43%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
≥4
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Khondab and military targets in Shiraz over the past week, coupled with strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah and explosions in Damascus, Syria, underpin trader consensus for 2-3 countries in April as the baseline amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28. IDF statements confirm operational plans through Passover (early April) with thousands of remaining targets, while faltering ceasefire talks and Houthi threats from Yemen keep ≥4 viable if escalation draws in additional fronts like Iraqi militias. The tight race reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus retaliatory spirals, with ≤1 improbable barring abrupt de-escalation at upcoming UN Security Council discussions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$1Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Khondab and military targets in Shiraz over the past week, coupled with strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah and explosions in Damascus, Syria, underpin trader consensus for 2-3 countries in April as the baseline amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28. IDF statements confirm operational plans through Passover (early April) with thousands of remaining targets, while faltering ceasefire talks and Houthi threats from Yemen keep ≥4 viable if escalation draws in additional fronts like Iraqi militias. The tight race reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus retaliatory spirals, with ≤1 improbable barring abrupt de-escalation at upcoming UN Security Council discussions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Khondab and military targets in Shiraz over the past week, coupled with strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah and explosions in Damascus, Syria, underpin trader consensus for 2-3 countries in April as the baseline amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28. IDF statements confirm operational plans through Passover (early April) with thousands of remaining targets, while faltering ceasefire talks and Houthi threats from Yemen keep ≥4 viable if escalation draws in additional fronts like Iraqi militias. The tight race reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus retaliatory spirals, with ≤1 improbable barring abrupt de-escalation at upcoming UN Security Council discussions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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