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Geopolítica·Israel

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

46% chance
Polymarket
NEW
46% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, trader consensus slightly favors no Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30 at 54.5%, reflecting U.S. President Trump's recent rebukes and a short-lived pause on energy infrastructure strikes, even after Israel's March 27 airstrikes hit Iranian steel factories, a power plant, Bushehr nuclear facility, and other sites. This competitive balance stems from Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli energy targets and threats to Gulf infrastructure, countered by diplomatic signals for de-escalation. Further Israeli retaliation or failed talks could push toward "Yes," while successful U.S.-brokered ceasefires might solidify "No."

Amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, trader consensus slightly favors no Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30 at 54.5%, reflecting U.S. President Trump's recent rebukes and a short-lived pause on energy infrastructure strikes, even after Israel's March 27 airstrikes hit Iranian steel factories, a power plant, Bushehr nuclear facility, and other sites. This competitive balance stems from Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli energy targets and threats to Gulf infrastructure, countered by diplomatic signals for de-escalation. Further Israeli retaliation or failed talks could push toward "Yes," while successful U.S.-brokered ceasefires might solidify "No."

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, trader consensus slightly favors no Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30 at 54.5%, reflecting U.S. President Trump's recent rebukes and a short-lived pause on energy infrastructure strikes, even after Israel's March 27 airstrikes hit Iranian steel factories, a power plant, Bushehr nuclear facility, and other sites. This competitive balance stems from Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli energy targets and threats to Gulf infrastructure, countered by diplomatic signals for de-escalation. Further Israeli retaliation or failed talks could push toward "Yes," while successful U.S.-brokered ceasefires might solidify "No."

Amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, trader consensus slightly favors no Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30 at 54.5%, reflecting U.S. President Trump's recent rebukes and a short-lived pause on energy infrastructure strikes, even after Israel's March 27 airstrikes hit Iranian steel factories, a power plant, Bushehr nuclear facility, and other sites. This competitive balance stems from Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli energy targets and threats to Gulf infrastructure, countered by diplomatic signals for de-escalation. Further Israeli retaliation or failed talks could push toward "Yes," while successful U.S.-brokered ceasefires might solidify "No."

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 46% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 46¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 46% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" es 46% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 46% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.