Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct strike against Iran and prompting traders to assess escalation risks. Iran downplayed the limited damage and casualties, issuing restrained statements to signal de-escalation amid ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen. No other countries have struck Iran in the past 30 days, with U.S. diplomacy urging restraint post-election. Donald Trump's victory introduces uncertainty, given his past "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions and Soleimani strike, as markets watch for executive actions or proxy developments before the resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$3,733,232 Vol.
31 de marzo
8%
$3,733,232 Vol.
31 de marzo
8%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct strike against Iran and prompting traders to assess escalation risks. Iran downplayed the limited damage and casualties, issuing restrained statements to signal de-escalation amid ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen. No other countries have struck Iran in the past 30 days, with U.S. diplomacy urging restraint post-election. Donald Trump's victory introduces uncertainty, given his past "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions and Soleimani strike, as markets watch for executive actions or proxy developments before the resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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