A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?
¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?
$2,919,033 Vol.
30 abr 2026
EAU
7%
Arabia Saudita
5%
Qatar
2%
Kuwait
2%
Turquía
1%
Jordania
1%
Cualquier país de la U.E.
1%
Bahréin
1%
Omán
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Francia
1%
Alemania
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$2,919,033 Vol.
EAU
$1,446,404 Vol.
7%
Arabia Saudita
$524,188 Vol.
5%
Qatar
$28,180 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$118,231 Vol.
2%
Turquía
$70,408 Vol.
1%
Jordania
$20,425 Vol.
1%
Cualquier país de la U.E.
$47,281 Vol.
1%
Bahréin
$51,974 Vol.
1%
Omán
$30,136 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$234,111 Vol.
1%
Francia
$187,512 Vol.
1%
Alemania
$120,277 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$39,907 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volumen
$2,919,033Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,919,033Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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