Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$1,543,458 Vol.
30 jun 2026
31 de mayo
1%
30 de junio
7%
$1,543,458 Vol.
31 de mayo
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$231,161 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,543,458Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$1,543,458Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a 45-day extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through late June 2026, with additional military and political discussions scheduled for late May and early June. Israel maintains a security buffer zone several kilometers inside southern Lebanon and conditions any full withdrawal on Hezbollah’s disarmament and redeployment north of the Litani River. Ongoing cross-border strikes and Israeli operations against Hezbollah infrastructure continue despite the truce, while Lebanese officials prioritize complete Israeli exit, prisoner releases, and reconstruction. These security and diplomatic hurdles, together with unresolved border issues and monitoring arrangements for UN Resolution 1701, keep trader assessments of an early withdrawal low amid the ongoing conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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