President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump anuncia un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán roto por...?
¿Trump anuncia un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán roto por...?
$1,383,255 Vol.
14 abr 2026
14 de abril
No
21 de abril
Sí
$1,383,255 Vol.
14 de abril
$659,603 Vol.
No
21 de abril
$723,652 Vol.
Sí
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volumen
$1,383,255Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,383,255Fecha de finalización
21 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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