Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime fall by May 31 (99.1% implied probability), reflecting the Iranian leadership's resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and Spring 2026 war fallout. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, have quashed dissent through mass arrests, executions, and a 77-day internet blackout, preventing widespread uprisings despite economic collapse from the Hormuz blockade and sanctions. Recent US intelligence shows Iran reconstituting 70% of its missile stockpiles during the ceasefire, bolstering operational continuity. Supreme Leader Khamenei's seclusion sparks health rumors, but no leadership vacuum has emerged. Over the short two-week horizon, traders see negligible risk absent shocks like his sudden death, IRGC mutiny, or ceasefire breakdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$19,810,953 Vol.
$19,810,953 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$19,810,953 Vol.
$19,810,953 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime fall by May 31 (99.1% implied probability), reflecting the Iranian leadership's resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and Spring 2026 war fallout. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, have quashed dissent through mass arrests, executions, and a 77-day internet blackout, preventing widespread uprisings despite economic collapse from the Hormuz blockade and sanctions. Recent US intelligence shows Iran reconstituting 70% of its missile stockpiles during the ceasefire, bolstering operational continuity. Supreme Leader Khamenei's seclusion sparks health rumors, but no leadership vacuum has emerged. Over the short two-week horizon, traders see negligible risk absent shocks like his sudden death, IRGC mutiny, or ceasefire breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volumen
$19,810,953Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime fall by May 31 (99.1% implied probability), reflecting the Iranian leadership's resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and Spring 2026 war fallout. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, have quashed dissent through mass arrests, executions, and a 77-day internet blackout, preventing widespread uprisings despite economic collapse from the Hormuz blockade and sanctions. Recent US intelligence shows Iran reconstituting 70% of its missile stockpiles during the ceasefire, bolstering operational continuity. Supreme Leader Khamenei's seclusion sparks health rumors, but no leadership vacuum has emerged. Over the short two-week horizon, traders see negligible risk absent shocks like his sudden death, IRGC mutiny, or ceasefire breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$19,814,239Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime fall by May 31 (99.1% implied probability), reflecting the Iranian leadership's resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and Spring 2026 war fallout. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, have quashed dissent through mass arrests, executions, and a 77-day internet blackout, preventing widespread uprisings despite economic collapse from the Hormuz blockade and sanctions. Recent US intelligence shows Iran reconstituting 70% of its missile stockpiles during the ceasefire, bolstering operational continuity. Supreme Leader Khamenei's seclusion sparks health rumors, but no leadership vacuum has emerged. Over the short two-week horizon, traders see negligible risk absent shocks like his sudden death, IRGC mutiny, or ceasefire breakdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes