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¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?

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¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?

$472,541 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$472,541 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$472,541 Vol.

1%

30 de abril

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.

Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.

Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "30 de abril" con 46%, seguido de "31 de marzo" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 46¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 46% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" ha generado $472.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" es "30 de abril" con 46%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 46% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "31 de marzo" con 1%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.