Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?
¿Estados Unidos anuncia el apoyo militar a los kurdos en Irán para el 31 de marzo?
$472,541 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 de marzo
1%
30 de abril
46%
$472,541 Vol.
31 de marzo
$472,541 Vol.
1%
30 de abril
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$472,541Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$472,541Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 1% chance of a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any formal White House, Pentagon, or State Department statement despite early March reports of outreach and Trump's calls for Kurdish involvement amid US-Iran escalation. A March 5 White House denial of arming plans, combined with Trump's recent Air Force One remarks downplaying Kurdish insertion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders' refusal to intervene, have solidified skepticism. Recent US troop deployments to the Middle East focus on broader deterrence, not Kurdish-specific aid, while sensitivities with Turkey and Baghdad pose barriers. With three days remaining, only a late-breaking diplomatic or military shift could alter this trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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