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¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?

Market icon

¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?

7% chance
Polymarket

$183,230 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$183,230 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 2024 helicopter crash, Iran held a snap presidential election with the first round on June 28 and runoff on July 5, electing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a full four-year term ending in 2028. With no verified reports of presidential resignation, incapacity, or constitutional triggers for another snap election—such as a supreme leader directive or regime crisis—and stable transition under the new administration amid ongoing regional tensions including recent missile exchanges with Israel, traders price overwhelming consensus at 92.7% against any further presidential vote by June 30, 2025. Only an unforeseen health event, political upheaval, or official announcement could shift this outlook before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$183,230
Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 2024 helicopter crash, Iran held a snap presidential election with the first round on June 28 and runoff on July 5, electing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a full four-year term ending in 2028. With no verified reports of presidential resignation, incapacity, or constitutional triggers for another snap election—such as a supreme leader directive or regime crisis—and stable transition under the new administration amid ongoing regional tensions including recent missile exchanges with Israel, traders price overwhelming consensus at 92.7% against any further presidential vote by June 30, 2025. Only an unforeseen health event, political upheaval, or official announcement could shift this outlook before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$183,230
Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Celebrará Irán una elección presidencial antes del 30 de junio?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?" ha generado $183.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?" es "¿Celebrará Irán una elección presidencial antes del 30 de junio?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Irán celebrará elecciones presidenciales antes del 30 de junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.