No recent US military mobilizations, official statements, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for invading Iran by March 31, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% odds against such action. Targeted US airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—most recently in late November following attacks on American forces—have contained escalation without broader ground operations. Diplomatic channels, including UN Security Council debates on Middle East de-escalation, prioritize sanctions and negotiations over invasion amid post-Afghanistan war fatigue. Incoming Trump administration signals focus on Iran's nuclear program via maximum pressure diplomacy rather than military invasion, with inauguration on January 20 leaving limited time for major shifts absent a major provocation like direct attacks on US assets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$3,426,867 Vol.
$3,426,867 Vol.
Sí
$3,426,867 Vol.
$3,426,867 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No recent US military mobilizations, official statements, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for invading Iran by March 31, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% odds against such action. Targeted US airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—most recently in late November following attacks on American forces—have contained escalation without broader ground operations. Diplomatic channels, including UN Security Council debates on Middle East de-escalation, prioritize sanctions and negotiations over invasion amid post-Afghanistan war fatigue. Incoming Trump administration signals focus on Iran's nuclear program via maximum pressure diplomacy rather than military invasion, with inauguration on January 20 leaving limited time for major shifts absent a major provocation like direct attacks on US assets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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