Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's repeated rejections of zero-enrichment demands. On March 25, the United States presented a 15-point diplomatic proposal requiring Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, dismantle key nuclear facilities, and hand over enriched stockpiles—conditions Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have publicly vowed to reject as non-starters. IAEA reports from late February underscore ongoing non-cooperation, with restricted inspections at sites like Isfahan and uncertainty over 440kg of 60% enriched uranium post-2025 US-Israeli strikes. Despite an Oman-mediated zero-stockpiling claim in late February, broader concessions remain elusive amid sanctions and escalation risks; a last-minute reversal would require unprecedented Tehran capitulation before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de marzo?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de marzo?
Sí
$2,148,189 Vol.
$2,148,189 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$2,148,189 Vol.
$2,148,189 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's repeated rejections of zero-enrichment demands. On March 25, the United States presented a 15-point diplomatic proposal requiring Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, dismantle key nuclear facilities, and hand over enriched stockpiles—conditions Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have publicly vowed to reject as non-starters. IAEA reports from late February underscore ongoing non-cooperation, with restricted inspections at sites like Isfahan and uncertainty over 440kg of 60% enriched uranium post-2025 US-Israeli strikes. Despite an Oman-mediated zero-stockpiling claim in late February, broader concessions remain elusive amid sanctions and escalation risks; a last-minute reversal would require unprecedented Tehran capitulation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volumen
$2,148,189Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's repeated rejections of zero-enrichment demands. On March 25, the United States presented a 15-point diplomatic proposal requiring Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, dismantle key nuclear facilities, and hand over enriched stockpiles—conditions Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have publicly vowed to reject as non-starters. IAEA reports from late February underscore ongoing non-cooperation, with restricted inspections at sites like Isfahan and uncertainty over 440kg of 60% enriched uranium post-2025 US-Israeli strikes. Despite an Oman-mediated zero-stockpiling claim in late February, broader concessions remain elusive amid sanctions and escalation risks; a last-minute reversal would require unprecedented Tehran capitulation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,148,189Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability that Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's repeated rejections of zero-enrichment demands. On March 25, the United States presented a 15-point diplomatic proposal requiring Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, dismantle key nuclear facilities, and hand over enriched stockpiles—conditions Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have publicly vowed to reject as non-starters. IAEA reports from late February underscore ongoing non-cooperation, with restricted inspections at sites like Isfahan and uncertainty over 440kg of 60% enriched uranium post-2025 US-Israeli strikes. Despite an Oman-mediated zero-stockpiling claim in late February, broader concessions remain elusive amid sanctions and escalation risks; a last-minute reversal would require unprecedented Tehran capitulation before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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