Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% implied probability, driven by Iran's March 25 rejection of the US 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan—which demanded complete dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program, an end to all uranium enrichment including civilian uses, handover of enriched stockpiles, and full IAEA access. Tehran countered with five ceasefire conditions silent on nuclear concessions, insisting on its sovereign right to peaceful enrichment amid stalled February Geneva talks where US negotiators sought zero enrichment but Iran offered only temporary suspensions. Ongoing US threats of escalated strikes and diplomatic impasse, with no public Iranian commitment by the April 30 deadline, underscore the unlikelihood of agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$136,961 Vol.
$136,961 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sí
$136,961 Vol.
$136,961 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% implied probability, driven by Iran's March 25 rejection of the US 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan—which demanded complete dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program, an end to all uranium enrichment including civilian uses, handover of enriched stockpiles, and full IAEA access. Tehran countered with five ceasefire conditions silent on nuclear concessions, insisting on its sovereign right to peaceful enrichment amid stalled February Geneva talks where US negotiators sought zero enrichment but Iran offered only temporary suspensions. Ongoing US threats of escalated strikes and diplomatic impasse, with no public Iranian commitment by the April 30 deadline, underscore the unlikelihood of agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$136,961Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% implied probability, driven by Iran's March 25 rejection of the US 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan—which demanded complete dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program, an end to all uranium enrichment including civilian uses, handover of enriched stockpiles, and full IAEA access. Tehran countered with five ceasefire conditions silent on nuclear concessions, insisting on its sovereign right to peaceful enrichment amid stalled February Geneva talks where US negotiators sought zero enrichment but Iran offered only temporary suspensions. Ongoing US threats of escalated strikes and diplomatic impasse, with no public Iranian commitment by the April 30 deadline, underscore the unlikelihood of agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$136,961Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% implied probability, driven by Iran's March 25 rejection of the US 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan—which demanded complete dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program, an end to all uranium enrichment including civilian uses, handover of enriched stockpiles, and full IAEA access. Tehran countered with five ceasefire conditions silent on nuclear concessions, insisting on its sovereign right to peaceful enrichment amid stalled February Geneva talks where US negotiators sought zero enrichment but Iran offered only temporary suspensions. Ongoing US threats of escalated strikes and diplomatic impasse, with no public Iranian commitment by the April 30 deadline, underscore the unlikelihood of agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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