US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
$367,046,745 Vol.
¿31 de enero?
No
28 de febrero
No
1 de marzo
No
3 de marzo
No
7 de marzo
No
14 de marzo
No
31 de marzo
No
30 de abril
Sí
31 de diciembre
Sí
$367,046,745 Vol.
¿31 de enero?
$571,796 Vol.
No
28 de febrero
$420,868 Vol.
No
1 de marzo
$160,345 Vol.
No
3 de marzo
$921,360 Vol.
No
7 de marzo
$0 Vol.
No
14 de marzo
$0 Vol.
No
31 de marzo
$73,927,762 Vol.
No
30 de abril
$269,049,107 Vol.
Sí
31 de diciembre
$21,995,506 Vol.
Sí
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volumen
$367,046,745Mercado abierto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$367,046,745Mercado abierto
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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