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Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

Sí

61% chance
Polymarket

$1,605,071 Vol.

Sí

61% chance
Polymarket

$1,605,071 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 61.5% implied probability of U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 10,000 targets and degraded Iran's military capabilities, including missile and drone sites. Leaked Pentagon reports detail preparations for Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, potentially targeting Kharg Island to disrupt oil exports, amid President Trump's threats of intensified action if Iran rejects a recent 15-point U.S. peace proposal mediated through Pakistan. Iran is reviewing the terms, but stalled diplomacy, persistent Iranian threats to U.S. forces, and operational gains without resolution have heightened escalation risks, though public polls indicate growing American skepticism toward further military involvement.

Trader consensus reflects a 61.5% implied probability of U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 10,000 targets and degraded Iran's military capabilities, including missile and drone sites. Leaked Pentagon reports detail preparations for Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, potentially targeting Kharg Island to disrupt oil exports, amid President Trump's threats of intensified action if Iran rejects a recent 15-point U.S. peace proposal mediated through Pakistan. Iran is reviewing the terms, but stalled diplomacy, persistent Iranian threats to U.S. forces, and operational gains without resolution have heightened escalation risks, though public polls indicate growing American skepticism toward further military involvement.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 61.5% implied probability of U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 10,000 targets and degraded Iran's military capabilities, including missile and drone sites. Leaked Pentagon reports detail preparations for Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, potentially targeting Kharg Island to disrupt oil exports, amid President Trump's threats of intensified action if Iran rejects a recent 15-point U.S. peace proposal mediated through Pakistan. Iran is reviewing the terms, but stalled diplomacy, persistent Iranian threats to U.S. forces, and operational gains without resolution have heightened escalation risks, though public polls indicate growing American skepticism toward further military involvement.

Trader consensus reflects a 61.5% implied probability of U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched February 28, 2026, which has struck over 10,000 targets and degraded Iran's military capabilities, including missile and drone sites. Leaked Pentagon reports detail preparations for Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, potentially targeting Kharg Island to disrupt oil exports, amid President Trump's threats of intensified action if Iran rejects a recent 15-point U.S. peace proposal mediated through Pakistan. Iran is reviewing the terms, but stalled diplomacy, persistent Iranian threats to U.S. forces, and operational gains without resolution have heightened escalation risks, though public polls indicate growing American skepticism toward further military involvement.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 61%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" ha generado $1.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.