Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?
¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?
Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 100.0%
Macron - Presidente de Francia <1%
Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía <1%
Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte <1%
$7,806,956 Vol.
$7,806,956 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Macron - Presidente de Francia
No
Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía
No
Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte
No
Xi - Secretario General del PCCh
No
Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel
No
Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia
No
Newsom - Gobernador de California
No
Milei - Presidente de Argentina
No
Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido
No
Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.
No
Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania
No
Putin - Presidente de Rusia
No
Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil
No
Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia
No
Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón
No
Abbas - Presidente de Palestina
No
Merz - Canciller alemán
No
Sánchez - Primer ministro español
No
Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México
No
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
No
Petro - Presidente de Colombia
No
Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría
Sí
Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela
No
al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria
No
Ninguno antes de 2027
No
Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 100.0%
Macron - Presidente de Francia <1%
Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía <1%
Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte <1%
$7,806,956 Vol.
$7,806,956 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Macron - Presidente de Francia
$213,458 Vol.
No
Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía
$239,209 Vol.
No
Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte
$101,156 Vol.
No
Xi - Secretario General del PCCh
$195,472 Vol.
No
Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel
$1,230,676 Vol.
No
Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia
$142,333 Vol.
No
Newsom - Gobernador de California
$442,120 Vol.
No
Milei - Presidente de Argentina
$137,493 Vol.
No
Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido
$831,259 Vol.
No
Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.
$387,579 Vol.
No
Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania
$217,105 Vol.
No
Putin - Presidente de Rusia
$528,047 Vol.
No
Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil
$194,780 Vol.
No
Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia
$242,031 Vol.
No
Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón
$544,114 Vol.
No
Abbas - Presidente de Palestina
$306,689 Vol.
No
Merz - Canciller alemán
$158,538 Vol.
No
Sánchez - Primer ministro español
$245,667 Vol.
No
Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México
$151,579 Vol.
No
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
$258,098 Vol.
No
Petro - Presidente de Colombia
$173,912 Vol.
No
Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría
$304,381 Vol.
Sí
Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela
$178,755 Vol.
No
al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria
$156,344 Vol.
No
Ninguno antes de 2027
$226,160 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,806,956Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,806,956Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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