Iran's IRGC maintains de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted February 28, 2026, selectively permitting commercial transits for friendly nations like China, India, and Pakistan while blocking US, Israeli, and allied vessels; traffic has plummeted to single digits daily from historical averages of 138. US-led airstrikes since March 19 targeted Iranian naval assets and mines to enable safe passage, with destroyers transiting as early as March 15, but no major foreign warship breakthroughs since. President Trump urged allies including UK, France, Japan, and others to deploy escorts, prompting joint statements from 22 nations expressing readiness, though deployments remain preparatory amid risks from missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft. Indian Navy warships are actively escorting national tankers nearby, while IRGC's March 27 tolled merchant route signals limited de-escalation. Traders eye coalition naval gatherings or forced transits before April 30 resolution, with uncertainty over commitments heightening volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
NEW
$20,327 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Estados Unidos
53%
United Kingdom
18%
France
7%
Pakistan
5%
Greece
4%
India
3%
Japan
3%
Italy
2%
Canada
2%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
2%
$20,327 Vol.
Estados Unidos
$2,736 Vol.
53%
United Kingdom
$2,504 Vol.
18%
France
$1,440 Vol.
7%
Pakistan
$1,433 Vol.
5%
Greece
$1,620 Vol.
4%
India
$2,696 Vol.
3%
Japan
$3,033 Vol.
3%
Italy
$1,187 Vol.
2%
Canada
$1,212 Vol.
2%
Netherlands
$1,391 Vol.
2%
Germany
$1,075 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Iran's IRGC maintains de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted February 28, 2026, selectively permitting commercial transits for friendly nations like China, India, and Pakistan while blocking US, Israeli, and allied vessels; traffic has plummeted to single digits daily from historical averages of 138. US-led airstrikes since March 19 targeted Iranian naval assets and mines to enable safe passage, with destroyers transiting as early as March 15, but no major foreign warship breakthroughs since. President Trump urged allies including UK, France, Japan, and others to deploy escorts, prompting joint statements from 22 nations expressing readiness, though deployments remain preparatory amid risks from missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft. Indian Navy warships are actively escorting national tankers nearby, while IRGC's March 27 tolled merchant route signals limited de-escalation. Traders eye coalition naval gatherings or forced transits before April 30 resolution, with uncertainty over commitments heightening volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Volumen
$20,327Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Iran's IRGC maintains de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted February 28, 2026, selectively permitting commercial transits for friendly nations like China, India, and Pakistan while blocking US, Israeli, and allied vessels; traffic has plummeted to single digits daily from historical averages of 138. US-led airstrikes since March 19 targeted Iranian naval assets and mines to enable safe passage, with destroyers transiting as early as March 15, but no major foreign warship breakthroughs since. President Trump urged allies including UK, France, Japan, and others to deploy escorts, prompting joint statements from 22 nations expressing readiness, though deployments remain preparatory amid risks from missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft. Indian Navy warships are actively escorting national tankers nearby, while IRGC's March 27 tolled merchant route signals limited de-escalation. Traders eye coalition naval gatherings or forced transits before April 30 resolution, with uncertainty over commitments heightening volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$20,327Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's IRGC maintains de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted February 28, 2026, selectively permitting commercial transits for friendly nations like China, India, and Pakistan while blocking US, Israeli, and allied vessels; traffic has plummeted to single digits daily from historical averages of 138. US-led airstrikes since March 19 targeted Iranian naval assets and mines to enable safe passage, with destroyers transiting as early as March 15, but no major foreign warship breakthroughs since. President Trump urged allies including UK, France, Japan, and others to deploy escorts, prompting joint statements from 22 nations expressing readiness, though deployments remain preparatory amid risks from missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft. Indian Navy warships are actively escorting national tankers nearby, while IRGC's March 27 tolled merchant route signals limited de-escalation. Traders eye coalition naval gatherings or forced transits before April 30 resolution, with uncertainty over commitments heightening volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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