Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 400 kilograms at near-weapons-grade 60% purity according to the IAEA's November report, continues to expand amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's November 16-17 Tehran visit produced no pledges to surrender stocks or halt enrichment, followed by the agency's board censuring Iran on November 21 for lacking cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites. Tehran rejected the rebuke, vowing further expansion, while post-US election signals hint at resuming indirect talks via Oman. No formal JCPOA revival or stockpile surrender agreement is imminent, with traders eyeing potential sanctions escalation, IAEA deadlines, and Trump administration policy shifts as key catalysts ahead of January deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$19,180 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
10%
June 30
24%
December 31
34%
$19,180 Vol.
April 30
$560 Vol.
10%
June 30
$24 Vol.
24%
December 31
$18,660 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 400 kilograms at near-weapons-grade 60% purity according to the IAEA's November report, continues to expand amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's November 16-17 Tehran visit produced no pledges to surrender stocks or halt enrichment, followed by the agency's board censuring Iran on November 21 for lacking cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites. Tehran rejected the rebuke, vowing further expansion, while post-US election signals hint at resuming indirect talks via Oman. No formal JCPOA revival or stockpile surrender agreement is imminent, with traders eyeing potential sanctions escalation, IAEA deadlines, and Trump administration policy shifts as key catalysts ahead of January deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volumen
$19,180Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 400 kilograms at near-weapons-grade 60% purity according to the IAEA's November report, continues to expand amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's November 16-17 Tehran visit produced no pledges to surrender stocks or halt enrichment, followed by the agency's board censuring Iran on November 21 for lacking cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites. Tehran rejected the rebuke, vowing further expansion, while post-US election signals hint at resuming indirect talks via Oman. No formal JCPOA revival or stockpile surrender agreement is imminent, with traders eyeing potential sanctions escalation, IAEA deadlines, and Trump administration policy shifts as key catalysts ahead of January deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$19,180Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 400 kilograms at near-weapons-grade 60% purity according to the IAEA's November report, continues to expand amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's November 16-17 Tehran visit produced no pledges to surrender stocks or halt enrichment, followed by the agency's board censuring Iran on November 21 for lacking cooperation on undeclared nuclear sites. Tehran rejected the rebuke, vowing further expansion, while post-US election signals hint at resuming indirect talks via Oman. No formal JCPOA revival or stockpile surrender agreement is imminent, with traders eyeing potential sanctions escalation, IAEA deadlines, and Trump administration policy shifts as key catalysts ahead of January deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes