Polymarket traders price a slim 16% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by April 30—defined as IMF PortWatch reporting a 7-day average of <=10 ship arrivals—reflecting sustained transit volumes amid Houthi threats tied to U.S. Strait of Hormuz actions. Recent UKMTO alerts detail a failed boarding 54 nautical miles off Yemen today, underscoring persistent risks without blockade achievement; traffic remains 11% above January 2025 levels per Kuehne+Nagel data. The chokepoint handles 4-5 million barrels per day of crude oil (5-6% of seaborne trade) and 12% of global commerce, embedding elevated war-risk insurance and $800-$1,500 per container freight premiums into Asia-Europe routes, with Brent crude at $98/bbl incorporating moderate supply disruption pricing. Key catalysts include further Iran-backed Houthi strikes or Hormuz escalations before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
$1,201,432 Vol.
30 abr 2026
30 de abril
17%
$1,201,432 Vol.
30 de abril
$871,107 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Polymarket traders price a slim 16% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by April 30—defined as IMF PortWatch reporting a 7-day average of <=10 ship arrivals—reflecting sustained transit volumes amid Houthi threats tied to U.S. Strait of Hormuz actions. Recent UKMTO alerts detail a failed boarding 54 nautical miles off Yemen today, underscoring persistent risks without blockade achievement; traffic remains 11% above January 2025 levels per Kuehne+Nagel data. The chokepoint handles 4-5 million barrels per day of crude oil (5-6% of seaborne trade) and 12% of global commerce, embedding elevated war-risk insurance and $800-$1,500 per container freight premiums into Asia-Europe routes, with Brent crude at $98/bbl incorporating moderate supply disruption pricing. Key catalysts include further Iran-backed Houthi strikes or Hormuz escalations before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volumen
$1,201,432Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Polymarket traders price a slim 16% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by April 30—defined as IMF PortWatch reporting a 7-day average of <=10 ship arrivals—reflecting sustained transit volumes amid Houthi threats tied to U.S. Strait of Hormuz actions. Recent UKMTO alerts detail a failed boarding 54 nautical miles off Yemen today, underscoring persistent risks without blockade achievement; traffic remains 11% above January 2025 levels per Kuehne+Nagel data. The chokepoint handles 4-5 million barrels per day of crude oil (5-6% of seaborne trade) and 12% of global commerce, embedding elevated war-risk insurance and $800-$1,500 per container freight premiums into Asia-Europe routes, with Brent crude at $98/bbl incorporating moderate supply disruption pricing. Key catalysts include further Iran-backed Houthi strikes or Hormuz escalations before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,201,432Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a slim 16% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by April 30—defined as IMF PortWatch reporting a 7-day average of <=10 ship arrivals—reflecting sustained transit volumes amid Houthi threats tied to U.S. Strait of Hormuz actions. Recent UKMTO alerts detail a failed boarding 54 nautical miles off Yemen today, underscoring persistent risks without blockade achievement; traffic remains 11% above January 2025 levels per Kuehne+Nagel data. The chokepoint handles 4-5 million barrels per day of crude oil (5-6% of seaborne trade) and 12% of global commerce, embedding elevated war-risk insurance and $800-$1,500 per container freight premiums into Asia-Europe routes, with Brent crude at $98/bbl incorporating moderate supply disruption pricing. Key catalysts include further Iran-backed Houthi strikes or Hormuz escalations before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes