Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including fresh Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile launches, has prompted renewed regional airspace restrictions and heightened security alerts. These follow the major February 28, 2026, US-Israeli operations that triggered initial broad closures across multiple Middle East FIRs, including Tel Aviv, with phased reopenings and NOTAM extensions through spring subject to threat assessments. Recent Iranian western airspace closures and mutual military posturing continue to influence airline routing decisions and Israeli aviation policy. Trader consensus reflects the potential for further defensive or preemptive measures to require renewed civilian flight suspensions, while diplomatic channels and scheduled security reviews remain key variables within resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$16,274,745 Vol.
14 jun 2026
June 14
<1%
June 15
1%
30 de junio
6%
$16,274,745 Vol.
June 14
$783,334 Vol.
<1%
June 15
$5,439,773 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$2,360,069 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including fresh Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile launches, has prompted renewed regional airspace restrictions and heightened security alerts. These follow the major February 28, 2026, US-Israeli operations that triggered initial broad closures across multiple Middle East FIRs, including Tel Aviv, with phased reopenings and NOTAM extensions through spring subject to threat assessments. Recent Iranian western airspace closures and mutual military posturing continue to influence airline routing decisions and Israeli aviation policy. Trader consensus reflects the potential for further defensive or preemptive measures to require renewed civilian flight suspensions, while diplomatic channels and scheduled security reviews remain key variables within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$16,274,745Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including fresh Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile launches, has prompted renewed regional airspace restrictions and heightened security alerts. These follow the major February 28, 2026, US-Israeli operations that triggered initial broad closures across multiple Middle East FIRs, including Tel Aviv, with phased reopenings and NOTAM extensions through spring subject to threat assessments. Recent Iranian western airspace closures and mutual military posturing continue to influence airline routing decisions and Israeli aviation policy. Trader consensus reflects the potential for further defensive or preemptive measures to require renewed civilian flight suspensions, while diplomatic channels and scheduled security reviews remain key variables within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$16,274,745Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including fresh Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile launches, has prompted renewed regional airspace restrictions and heightened security alerts. These follow the major February 28, 2026, US-Israeli operations that triggered initial broad closures across multiple Middle East FIRs, including Tel Aviv, with phased reopenings and NOTAM extensions through spring subject to threat assessments. Recent Iranian western airspace closures and mutual military posturing continue to influence airline routing decisions and Israeli aviation policy. Trader consensus reflects the potential for further defensive or preemptive measures to require renewed civilian flight suspensions, while diplomatic channels and scheduled security reviews remain key variables within resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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