Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on escalating Middle East tensions, particularly Iran's threats to disrupt the vital oil chokepoint following its April 13 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Daily tanker traffic persists at around 21 million barrels of crude oil—roughly 20% of global supply—with no blockades reported as of late April, supported by routine U.S. Navy warship passages deterring aggression. Oil futures (Brent at ~$87/barrel) embed a geopolitical risk premium of 5-10 dollars, with shipping insurance rates up 20% amid Houthi disruptions nearby. Key catalysts include potential Iranian retaliation before April 30 or U.S.-led naval reinforcements, which could either affirm open passage or trigger volatility in energy markets and tanker charter rates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
20+
71%
40+
42%
60+
35%
80+
26%
$1,491 Vol.
20+
$856 Vol.
71%
40+
$77 Vol.
42%
60+
$298 Vol.
35%
80+
$260 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on escalating Middle East tensions, particularly Iran's threats to disrupt the vital oil chokepoint following its April 13 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Daily tanker traffic persists at around 21 million barrels of crude oil—roughly 20% of global supply—with no blockades reported as of late April, supported by routine U.S. Navy warship passages deterring aggression. Oil futures (Brent at ~$87/barrel) embed a geopolitical risk premium of 5-10 dollars, with shipping insurance rates up 20% amid Houthi disruptions nearby. Key catalysts include potential Iranian retaliation before April 30 or U.S.-led naval reinforcements, which could either affirm open passage or trigger volatility in energy markets and tanker charter rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,491Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on escalating Middle East tensions, particularly Iran's threats to disrupt the vital oil chokepoint following its April 13 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Daily tanker traffic persists at around 21 million barrels of crude oil—roughly 20% of global supply—with no blockades reported as of late April, supported by routine U.S. Navy warship passages deterring aggression. Oil futures (Brent at ~$87/barrel) embed a geopolitical risk premium of 5-10 dollars, with shipping insurance rates up 20% amid Houthi disruptions nearby. Key catalysts include potential Iranian retaliation before April 30 or U.S.-led naval reinforcements, which could either affirm open passage or trigger volatility in energy markets and tanker charter rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,491Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on escalating Middle East tensions, particularly Iran's threats to disrupt the vital oil chokepoint following its April 13 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Daily tanker traffic persists at around 21 million barrels of crude oil—roughly 20% of global supply—with no blockades reported as of late April, supported by routine U.S. Navy warship passages deterring aggression. Oil futures (Brent at ~$87/barrel) embed a geopolitical risk premium of 5-10 dollars, with shipping insurance rates up 20% amid Houthi disruptions nearby. Key catalysts include potential Iranian retaliation before April 30 or U.S.-led naval reinforcements, which could either affirm open passage or trigger volatility in energy markets and tanker charter rates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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