US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28 targeting leadership, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and armed forces, persist into day 37 as of April 4, driving trader assessments on resolution timelines. Iranian forces downed a US F-15 jet and caused two US aircraft crashes within the past 24 hours, while US-Israeli munitions struck an Iranian bridge and military targets. President Trump asserts operations advance ahead of schedule, degrading Iran's air, naval, and missile capabilities, yet Tehran sustains retaliatory drone and ballistic missile barrages, contesting the Strait of Hormuz. No ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has materialized, with ongoing strikes and hinted negotiations heightening uncertainty over escalation or de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$333,307 Vol.
31 mar 2026
15 de abril
6%
30 de abril
25%
31 de mayo
57%
30 de junio
70%
$333,307 Vol.
15 de abril
$36,742 Vol.
6%
30 de abril
$23,896 Vol.
25%
31 de mayo
$12,931 Vol.
57%
30 de junio
$11,510 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28 targeting leadership, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and armed forces, persist into day 37 as of April 4, driving trader assessments on resolution timelines. Iranian forces downed a US F-15 jet and caused two US aircraft crashes within the past 24 hours, while US-Israeli munitions struck an Iranian bridge and military targets. President Trump asserts operations advance ahead of schedule, degrading Iran's air, naval, and missile capabilities, yet Tehran sustains retaliatory drone and ballistic missile barrages, contesting the Strait of Hormuz. No ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has materialized, with ongoing strikes and hinted negotiations heightening uncertainty over escalation or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volumen
$333,307Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28 targeting leadership, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and armed forces, persist into day 37 as of April 4, driving trader assessments on resolution timelines. Iranian forces downed a US F-15 jet and caused two US aircraft crashes within the past 24 hours, while US-Israeli munitions struck an Iranian bridge and military targets. President Trump asserts operations advance ahead of schedule, degrading Iran's air, naval, and missile capabilities, yet Tehran sustains retaliatory drone and ballistic missile barrages, contesting the Strait of Hormuz. No ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has materialized, with ongoing strikes and hinted negotiations heightening uncertainty over escalation or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$333,307Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28 targeting leadership, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and armed forces, persist into day 37 as of April 4, driving trader assessments on resolution timelines. Iranian forces downed a US F-15 jet and caused two US aircraft crashes within the past 24 hours, while US-Israeli munitions struck an Iranian bridge and military targets. President Trump asserts operations advance ahead of schedule, degrading Iran's air, naval, and missile capabilities, yet Tehran sustains retaliatory drone and ballistic missile barrages, contesting the Strait of Hormuz. No ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has materialized, with ongoing strikes and hinted negotiations heightening uncertainty over escalation or de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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