US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist under Operation Epic Fury, with a major bridge near Tehran struck on April 2, killing at least eight and injuring dozens, prompting Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states. President Trump's address signaled 2-3 more weeks of intense operations targeting military infrastructure before potential diplomacy, while the US State Department highlighted attacks on civilian sites. Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil price surges and international talks, blocked at the UN Security Council by Russia, China, and France. No ceasefire or de-escalation evident; traders price mid-April resolution as closely contested amid resilient Iranian retaliation and US escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$319,391 Vol.
31 mar 2026
March 30
<1%
15 de abril
14%
30 de abril
41%
31 de mayo
76%
30 de junio
80%
$319,391 Vol.
March 30
$25,561 Vol.
<1%
15 de abril
$33,261 Vol.
14%
30 de abril
$18,093 Vol.
41%
31 de mayo
$10,736 Vol.
76%
30 de junio
$9,068 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist under Operation Epic Fury, with a major bridge near Tehran struck on April 2, killing at least eight and injuring dozens, prompting Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states. President Trump's address signaled 2-3 more weeks of intense operations targeting military infrastructure before potential diplomacy, while the US State Department highlighted attacks on civilian sites. Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil price surges and international talks, blocked at the UN Security Council by Russia, China, and France. No ceasefire or de-escalation evident; traders price mid-April resolution as closely contested amid resilient Iranian retaliation and US escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$319,391Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist under Operation Epic Fury, with a major bridge near Tehran struck on April 2, killing at least eight and injuring dozens, prompting Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states. President Trump's address signaled 2-3 more weeks of intense operations targeting military infrastructure before potential diplomacy, while the US State Department highlighted attacks on civilian sites. Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil price surges and international talks, blocked at the UN Security Council by Russia, China, and France. No ceasefire or de-escalation evident; traders price mid-April resolution as closely contested amid resilient Iranian retaliation and US escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$319,391Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist under Operation Epic Fury, with a major bridge near Tehran struck on April 2, killing at least eight and injuring dozens, prompting Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states. President Trump's address signaled 2-3 more weeks of intense operations targeting military infrastructure before potential diplomacy, while the US State Department highlighted attacks on civilian sites. Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil price surges and international talks, blocked at the UN Security Council by Russia, China, and France. No ceasefire or de-escalation evident; traders price mid-April resolution as closely contested amid resilient Iranian retaliation and US escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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