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Política·Irán

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Market icon
Política·Irán

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

mar 31

dic 31

mar 31

dic 31

21% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
21% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such escalatory diplomatic actions amid ongoing global tensions. In late March 2026, amid Middle East flare-ups—including suspected Iranian drone strikes on U.S. facilities in Riyadh and partial evacuations from consulates in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—Arab states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar expelled Iranian envoys, but none targeted U.S. ambassadors. South Africa summoned its U.S. ambassador over criticisms but stopped short of declaring persona non grata, echoing 2025 bilateral strains without further rupture. With no verified expulsions in 2026 and high economic costs for most nations, traders see limited catalysts for change despite flashpoints like sanctions or territorial disputes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 21% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 21¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 21% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" es 21% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 21% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.