Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting four weeks of near-total commercial halt amid the US-Iran conflict sparked by February 28 strikes. Bloomberg data as of March 27 confirms frozen vessel flows despite Iran's toll-collection attempts, with only Iranian-linked ships transiting and global operators facing prohibitive war-risk insurance premia—up sharply alongside tanker charter rates. Rerouting via Africa extends voyages by 30-60 days, amplifying supply chain costs and Brent crude volatility as 20% of seaborne oil remains choked. Absent de-escalation signals or cease-fire progress, traders anticipate prolonged disruption past the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$1,488,429 Vol.
$1,488,429 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sí
$1,488,429 Vol.
$1,488,429 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting four weeks of near-total commercial halt amid the US-Iran conflict sparked by February 28 strikes. Bloomberg data as of March 27 confirms frozen vessel flows despite Iran's toll-collection attempts, with only Iranian-linked ships transiting and global operators facing prohibitive war-risk insurance premia—up sharply alongside tanker charter rates. Rerouting via Africa extends voyages by 30-60 days, amplifying supply chain costs and Brent crude volatility as 20% of seaborne oil remains choked. Absent de-escalation signals or cease-fire progress, traders anticipate prolonged disruption past the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,488,429Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting four weeks of near-total commercial halt amid the US-Iran conflict sparked by February 28 strikes. Bloomberg data as of March 27 confirms frozen vessel flows despite Iran's toll-collection attempts, with only Iranian-linked ships transiting and global operators facing prohibitive war-risk insurance premia—up sharply alongside tanker charter rates. Rerouting via Africa extends voyages by 30-60 days, amplifying supply chain costs and Brent crude volatility as 20% of seaborne oil remains choked. Absent de-escalation signals or cease-fire progress, traders anticipate prolonged disruption past the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,488,429Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting four weeks of near-total commercial halt amid the US-Iran conflict sparked by February 28 strikes. Bloomberg data as of March 27 confirms frozen vessel flows despite Iran's toll-collection attempts, with only Iranian-linked ships transiting and global operators facing prohibitive war-risk insurance premia—up sharply alongside tanker charter rates. Rerouting via Africa extends voyages by 30-60 days, amplifying supply chain costs and Brent crude volatility as 20% of seaborne oil remains choked. Absent de-escalation signals or cease-fire progress, traders anticipate prolonged disruption past the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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