Threats from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, to target the U.S. embassy in Baghdad have intensified following Iran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, prompting trader scrutiny of potential escalation. Despite over 200 militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria since October 2023, the State Department confirms the embassy remains fully operational with enhanced security and no ordered departure of personnel announced as of mid-October 2024. U.S. airstrikes against militia targets continue as deterrence, while diplomatic channels urge Iraqi authorities to curb attacks. Upcoming U.S. or allied responses to Iran could heighten risks, though historical patterns show embassies rarely fully evacuate absent direct assaults or intelligence of imminent threats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$348,046 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
31 de marzo
4%
30 de abril
15%
$348,046 Vol.
31 de marzo
$292,579 Vol.
4%
30 de abril
$1,476 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Threats from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, to target the U.S. embassy in Baghdad have intensified following Iran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, prompting trader scrutiny of potential escalation. Despite over 200 militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria since October 2023, the State Department confirms the embassy remains fully operational with enhanced security and no ordered departure of personnel announced as of mid-October 2024. U.S. airstrikes against militia targets continue as deterrence, while diplomatic channels urge Iraqi authorities to curb attacks. Upcoming U.S. or allied responses to Iran could heighten risks, though historical patterns show embassies rarely fully evacuate absent direct assaults or intelligence of imminent threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volumen
$348,046Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Threats from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, to target the U.S. embassy in Baghdad have intensified following Iran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, prompting trader scrutiny of potential escalation. Despite over 200 militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria since October 2023, the State Department confirms the embassy remains fully operational with enhanced security and no ordered departure of personnel announced as of mid-October 2024. U.S. airstrikes against militia targets continue as deterrence, while diplomatic channels urge Iraqi authorities to curb attacks. Upcoming U.S. or allied responses to Iran could heighten risks, though historical patterns show embassies rarely fully evacuate absent direct assaults or intelligence of imminent threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volumen
$348,046Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Threats from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, to target the U.S. embassy in Baghdad have intensified following Iran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, prompting trader scrutiny of potential escalation. Despite over 200 militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria since October 2023, the State Department confirms the embassy remains fully operational with enhanced security and no ordered departure of personnel announced as of mid-October 2024. U.S. airstrikes against militia targets continue as deterrence, while diplomatic channels urge Iraqi authorities to curb attacks. Upcoming U.S. or allied responses to Iran could heighten risks, though historical patterns show embassies rarely fully evacuate absent direct assaults or intelligence of imminent threats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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