Amid escalating US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 military exchanges, Iran has imposed selective toll-like restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, slashing daily ship arrivals to single digits from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint channels 21 million barrels per day of oil—20% of global seaborne supply—driving Brent crude above $116 per barrel with a $15-20 geopolitical risk premium, surging war risk insurance to 5-10% of hull value, and inflating tanker freight rates. Trader consensus prices under 2% implied probability for 20+ daily transits on any March day, reflecting persistent low volumes despite recent Chinese Cosco container ships clearing on March 31. Resolution hinges on final IMF Portwatch March 31 release, with US escort operations or further escalations as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$621,117 Vol.
31 mar 2026
20+
<1%
40+
<1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$621,117 Vol.
20+
$288,249 Vol.
<1%
40+
$104,210 Vol.
<1%
60+
$89,224 Vol.
<1%
80+
$139,434 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 military exchanges, Iran has imposed selective toll-like restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, slashing daily ship arrivals to single digits from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint channels 21 million barrels per day of oil—20% of global seaborne supply—driving Brent crude above $116 per barrel with a $15-20 geopolitical risk premium, surging war risk insurance to 5-10% of hull value, and inflating tanker freight rates. Trader consensus prices under 2% implied probability for 20+ daily transits on any March day, reflecting persistent low volumes despite recent Chinese Cosco container ships clearing on March 31. Resolution hinges on final IMF Portwatch March 31 release, with US escort operations or further escalations as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$621,117Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 military exchanges, Iran has imposed selective toll-like restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, slashing daily ship arrivals to single digits from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint channels 21 million barrels per day of oil—20% of global seaborne supply—driving Brent crude above $116 per barrel with a $15-20 geopolitical risk premium, surging war risk insurance to 5-10% of hull value, and inflating tanker freight rates. Trader consensus prices under 2% implied probability for 20+ daily transits on any March day, reflecting persistent low volumes despite recent Chinese Cosco container ships clearing on March 31. Resolution hinges on final IMF Portwatch March 31 release, with US escort operations or further escalations as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$621,117Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 military exchanges, Iran has imposed selective toll-like restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transits, slashing daily ship arrivals to single digits from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint channels 21 million barrels per day of oil—20% of global seaborne supply—driving Brent crude above $116 per barrel with a $15-20 geopolitical risk premium, surging war risk insurance to 5-10% of hull value, and inflating tanker freight rates. Trader consensus prices under 2% implied probability for 20+ daily transits on any March day, reflecting persistent low volumes despite recent Chinese Cosco container ships clearing on March 31. Resolution hinges on final IMF Portwatch March 31 release, with US escort operations or further escalations as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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