Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—since early March 2026, targeting US bases and infrastructure in retaliation for US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites that initiated the conflict on February 28. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, though Gulf defenses intercepted additional Iranian projectiles shortly after. Saudi Arabia is mediating potential resumption of talks this week as the truce nears expiration around April 22, while mutual accusations persist, including Iran's claims of UAE drone attacks on its islands. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals tempered by high escalation risks from unresolved proxy dynamics and regional proxy forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acción militar de Irán contra un Estado del Golfo en...?
¿Acción militar de Irán contra un Estado del Golfo en...?
$235,544 Vol.
30 abr 2026
1 de abril
Sí
2 de abril
No
3 de abril
Sí
4 de abril
Sí
5 de abril
Sí
6 de abril
Sí
7 de abril
Sí
8 de abril
Sí
9 de abril
No
10 de abril
No
$235,544 Vol.
1 de abril
$8,042 Vol.
Sí
2 de abril
$21,615 Vol.
No
3 de abril
$34,823 Vol.
Sí
4 de abril
$23,462 Vol.
Sí
5 de abril
$26,153 Vol.
Sí
6 de abril
$31,284 Vol.
Sí
7 de abril
$4,711 Vol.
Sí
8 de abril
$12,963 Vol.
Sí
9 de abril
$48,197 Vol.
No
10 de abril
$24,293 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—since early March 2026, targeting US bases and infrastructure in retaliation for US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites that initiated the conflict on February 28. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, though Gulf defenses intercepted additional Iranian projectiles shortly after. Saudi Arabia is mediating potential resumption of talks this week as the truce nears expiration around April 22, while mutual accusations persist, including Iran's claims of UAE drone attacks on its islands. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals tempered by high escalation risks from unresolved proxy dynamics and regional proxy forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$235,544Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—since early March 2026, targeting US bases and infrastructure in retaliation for US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites that initiated the conflict on February 28. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, though Gulf defenses intercepted additional Iranian projectiles shortly after. Saudi Arabia is mediating potential resumption of talks this week as the truce nears expiration around April 22, while mutual accusations persist, including Iran's claims of UAE drone attacks on its islands. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals tempered by high escalation risks from unresolved proxy dynamics and regional proxy forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$235,544Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—since early March 2026, targeting US bases and infrastructure in retaliation for US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites that initiated the conflict on February 28. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, though Gulf defenses intercepted additional Iranian projectiles shortly after. Saudi Arabia is mediating potential resumption of talks this week as the truce nears expiration around April 22, while mutual accusations persist, including Iran's claims of UAE drone attacks on its islands. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals tempered by high escalation risks from unresolved proxy dynamics and regional proxy forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes