Market icon
Política·Tasas Fed

¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Tasas Fed

¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?

3.75% 33.9%

3.5% 22%

3.25% 13%

4,0% 11.8%

Polymarket

$5,899,748 Vol.

3.75% 33.9%

3.5% 22%

3.25% 13%

4,0% 11.8%

Polymarket

$5,899,748 Vol.

≤1,0%

$191,664 Vol.

2%

1.25

$99,125 Vol.

1%

1.5%

$108,228 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$95,051 Vol.

<1%

2,0%

$94,714 Vol.

1%

2.25%

$59,394 Vol.

1%

2,5%

$84,430 Vol.

1%

2.75%

$23,409 Vol.

6%

3,0%

$429,849 Vol.

6%

3.25%

$37,509 Vol.

13%

3.5%

$55,791 Vol.

22%

3.75%

$489,278 Vol.

34%

4,0%

$1,340,640 Vol.

12%

4.25%

$403,343 Vol.

3%

≥ 4.5%

$2,387,323 Vol.

3%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.

Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.

Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 15 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "3.75%" con 34%, seguido de "3.5%" con 23%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 34¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" ha generado $5.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?", explora los 15 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" es "3.75%" con 34%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3.5%" con 23%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.