Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado3.75% 30.4%
3.5% 24%
3.25% 13%
4,0% 12.0%
$5,756,239 Vol.
$5,756,239 Vol.
≤1,0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3,0%
6%
3.25%
13%
3.5%
24%
3.75%
30%
4,0%
12%
4.25%
2%
≥ 4.5%
3%
3.75% 30.4%
3.5% 24%
3.25% 13%
4,0% 12.0%
$5,756,239 Vol.
$5,756,239 Vol.
≤1,0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3,0%
6%
3.25%
13%
3.5%
24%
3.75%
30%
4,0%
12%
4.25%
2%
≥ 4.5%
3%
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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