Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado3.75% 33.9%
3.5% 22%
3.25% 13%
4,0% 11.8%
$5,899,748 Vol.
$5,899,748 Vol.
≤1,0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3,0%
6%
3.25%
13%
3.5%
22%
3.75%
34%
4,0%
12%
4.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
3%
3.75% 33.9%
3.5% 22%
3.25% 13%
4,0% 11.8%
$5,899,748 Vol.
$5,899,748 Vol.
≤1,0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3,0%
6%
3.25%
13%
3.5%
22%
3.75%
34%
4,0%
12%
4.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
3%
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, with 3.5% next at 22.5%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game consensus for limited Federal Reserve easing amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The March 18 FOMC held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—effective rate near 3.64%—while the dot plot median projects just one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% end-year, unchanged from December but with upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7%. Recent hotter March CPI nowcasts (0.76% month-over-month) and spiking oil prices have tempered cut odds to ~25% per futures, favoring higher outcomes like 4.0% (11.8%) if disinflation stalls. Key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls, PCE data, and May FOMC, with labor softening potentially enabling deeper cuts toward 3.25% (13.0%) versus persistent pressures locking in 3.75% or above.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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