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Política·Tasas Fed

¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Tasas Fed

¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?

3.75% 30.4%

3.5% 24%

3.25% 13%

4,0% 12.0%

Polymarket

$5,756,239 Vol.

3.75% 30.4%

3.5% 24%

3.25% 13%

4,0% 12.0%

Polymarket

$5,756,239 Vol.

≤1,0%

$191,491 Vol.

2%

1.25

$98,130 Vol.

1%

1.5%

$108,163 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$94,186 Vol.

<1%

2,0%

$94,650 Vol.

1%

2.25%

$56,419 Vol.

1%

2,5%

$84,328 Vol.

1%

2.75%

$23,344 Vol.

6%

3,0%

$429,524 Vol.

6%

3.25%

$37,346 Vol.

13%

3.5%

$55,647 Vol.

24%

3.75%

$352,164 Vol.

30%

4,0%

$1,340,577 Vol.

12%

4.25%

$403,030 Vol.

2%

≥ 4.5%

$2,387,241 Vol.

3%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.

Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.

Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end 2026 Fed funds rate around the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with 3.75% at 30.6% implied probability edging 3.5% at 24.0%, reflecting balanced risks to monetary policy normalization. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady amid a dot plot median projection of 3.4%—implying one 25 basis point cut—but recent spikes in oil prices above $110 per barrel from geopolitical tensions and a 1.3% surge in February import prices have fueled inflation fears, tempering easing bets per CME Fed funds futures implying ~3.7%. Countering this, February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment hit 4.4%, signaling labor softening. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward hold or cut based on inflation trajectory versus employment trends.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 15 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "3.75%" con 30%, seguido de "3.5%" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" ha generado $5.8 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?", explora los 15 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" es "3.75%" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3.5%" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuál será la tasa de la Fed a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.