Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDecisiones de la Fed (enero-abril)
Decisiones de la Fed (enero-abril)
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 100.0%
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Recortar–Recortar–Pausar <1%
Pausar–Recortar–Pausar <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa
No
Recortar–Recortar–Pausar
No
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
Sí
Pausar–Recortar–Pausar
No
Otro
No
Recortar–Pausar–Recortar
No
Recortar–recortar–recortar
No
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar
No
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
No
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 100.0%
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Recortar–Recortar–Pausar <1%
Pausar–Recortar–Pausar <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Recorte–Pausa–Pausa
$2,755 Vol.
No
Recortar–Recortar–Pausar
$6,537 Vol.
No
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
$116,256 Vol.
Sí
Pausar–Recortar–Pausar
$0 Vol.
No
Otro
$289,268 Vol.
No
Recortar–Pausar–Recortar
$8,555 Vol.
No
Recortar–recortar–recortar
$22,139 Vol.
No
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar
$250,134 Vol.
No
Pausa–Recorte–Recorte
$0 Vol.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volumen
$695,645Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$695,645Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes