Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a commanding 97.8% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January 28 and March 18 at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range amid a steady inflation trajectory—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year as expected—and resilient economic conditions despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%). The March dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, with Chair Powell affirming current policy as appropriate pending further disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March jobs data (due April 4) or CPI (April 10), potentially prompting an April 28-29 rate adjustment if labor market cracks emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoDecisiones de la Fed (enero-abril)
Decisiones de la Fed (enero-abril)
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 97.9%
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar 1.7%
Otro <1%
$393,857 Vol.
$393,857 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
98%
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar
2%
Otro
1%
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 97.9%
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar 1.7%
Otro <1%
$393,857 Vol.
$393,857 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
$48,891 Vol.
98%
Pausar–Pausar–Recortar
$168,488 Vol.
2%
Otro
$136,492 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a commanding 97.8% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January 28 and March 18 at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range amid a steady inflation trajectory—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year as expected—and resilient economic conditions despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%). The March dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, with Chair Powell affirming current policy as appropriate pending further disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March jobs data (due April 4) or CPI (April 10), potentially prompting an April 28-29 rate adjustment if labor market cracks emerge.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volumen
$393,857Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a commanding 97.8% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January 28 and March 18 at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range amid a steady inflation trajectory—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year as expected—and resilient economic conditions despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%). The March dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, with Chair Powell affirming current policy as appropriate pending further disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March jobs data (due April 4) or CPI (April 10), potentially prompting an April 28-29 rate adjustment if labor market cracks emerge.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$393,857Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a commanding 97.8% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January 28 and March 18 at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range amid a steady inflation trajectory—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year as expected—and resilient economic conditions despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%). The March dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, with Chair Powell affirming current policy as appropriate pending further disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March jobs data (due April 4) or CPI (April 10), potentially prompting an April 28-29 rate adjustment if labor market cracks emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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