Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including military strikes and proxy attacks on American diplomatic facilities since late February 2026, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 84.5% for reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 hostage crisis amid severed diplomatic relations, with the State Department maintaining only a virtual presence. Recent rejections by Iran of President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal—channeled via Pakistan—and counteroffers amid nuclear standoffs and sanctions have stalled negotiations initiated in April 2025, escalating tensions rather than fostering normalization. While indirect talks persist, significant barriers like active conflict and institutional distrust make full diplomatic restoration improbable absent a major de-escalation or regime shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including military strikes and proxy attacks on American diplomatic facilities since late February 2026, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 84.5% for reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 hostage crisis amid severed diplomatic relations, with the State Department maintaining only a virtual presence. Recent rejections by Iran of President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal—channeled via Pakistan—and counteroffers amid nuclear standoffs and sanctions have stalled negotiations initiated in April 2025, escalating tensions rather than fostering normalization. While indirect talks persist, significant barriers like active conflict and institutional distrust make full diplomatic restoration improbable absent a major de-escalation or regime shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$29,601Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including military strikes and proxy attacks on American diplomatic facilities since late February 2026, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 84.5% for reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 hostage crisis amid severed diplomatic relations, with the State Department maintaining only a virtual presence. Recent rejections by Iran of President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal—channeled via Pakistan—and counteroffers amid nuclear standoffs and sanctions have stalled negotiations initiated in April 2025, escalating tensions rather than fostering normalization. While indirect talks persist, significant barriers like active conflict and institutional distrust make full diplomatic restoration improbable absent a major de-escalation or regime shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$29,601Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including military strikes and proxy attacks on American diplomatic facilities since late February 2026, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 84.5% for reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 hostage crisis amid severed diplomatic relations, with the State Department maintaining only a virtual presence. Recent rejections by Iran of President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal—channeled via Pakistan—and counteroffers amid nuclear standoffs and sanctions have stalled negotiations initiated in April 2025, escalating tensions rather than fostering normalization. While indirect talks persist, significant barriers like active conflict and institutional distrust make full diplomatic restoration improbable absent a major de-escalation or regime shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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