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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

Market icon
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

Mar 31

Jun 30

Mar 31

Jun 30

Sí

1% chance
Polymarket

$4,727,900 Vol.

Sí

1% chance
Polymarket

$4,727,900 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.6% reflecting the E3 nations—France, UK, and Germany—showing no signs of direct offensive strikes on Iran, prioritizing diplomacy and defensive postures amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent joint E3 statements from late February condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies but urged negotiations and nuclear restraint, with deployments limited to protective naval and air assets in the Gulf. UK approvals for US base usage have supported American operations without European offensive involvement, as affirmed by officials rejecting escalation claims. With three days left until March 31, absent major Iranian retaliation on European interests—like successful strikes on Diego Garcia or Gulf shipping—such action remains highly improbable, though G7 talks in France could signal shifts.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.6% reflecting the E3 nations—France, UK, and Germany—showing no signs of direct offensive strikes on Iran, prioritizing diplomacy and defensive postures amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent joint E3 statements from late February condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies but urged negotiations and nuclear restraint, with deployments limited to protective naval and air assets in the Gulf. UK approvals for US base usage have supported American operations without European offensive involvement, as affirmed by officials rejecting escalation claims. With three days left until March 31, absent major Iranian retaliation on European interests—like successful strikes on Diego Garcia or Gulf shipping—such action remains highly improbable, though G7 talks in France could signal shifts.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.6% reflecting the E3 nations—France, UK, and Germany—showing no signs of direct offensive strikes on Iran, prioritizing diplomacy and defensive postures amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent joint E3 statements from late February condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies but urged negotiations and nuclear restraint, with deployments limited to protective naval and air assets in the Gulf. UK approvals for US base usage have supported American operations without European offensive involvement, as affirmed by officials rejecting escalation claims. With three days left until March 31, absent major Iranian retaliation on European interests—like successful strikes on Diego Garcia or Gulf shipping—such action remains highly improbable, though G7 talks in France could signal shifts.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.6% reflecting the E3 nations—France, UK, and Germany—showing no signs of direct offensive strikes on Iran, prioritizing diplomacy and defensive postures amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent joint E3 statements from late February condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies but urged negotiations and nuclear restraint, with deployments limited to protective naval and air assets in the Gulf. UK approvals for US base usage have supported American operations without European offensive involvement, as affirmed by officials rejecting escalation claims. With three days left until March 31, absent major Iranian retaliation on European interests—like successful strikes on Diego Garcia or Gulf shipping—such action remains highly improbable, though G7 talks in France could signal shifts.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Francia, el Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán a Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 1¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 1% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" ha generado $4.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 16, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" es "¿Francia, el Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán a Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" con solo 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.