Trader consensus assigning a 97.2% implied probability against abolition of the Federal Reserve before 2027 stems primarily from the lack of legislative traction on proposals such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846/S. 869), introduced in March 2025 and stalled in committee with no advancement through mid-2026. The Fed’s statutory framework under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, its ongoing role in monetary policy via the federal funds rate, inflation targeting, and labor market oversight, plus continued FOMC communications and 2026 supervisory activities, reinforce institutional continuity. Near-term catalysts like upcoming FOMC meetings and economic data releases further anchor expectations. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds remain limited to an unprecedented financial crisis or sweeping political realignment capable of surmounting bicameral repeal hurdles.