Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the June 19 meeting, reflecting the central bank's eighth consecutive 50 basis point cut to 14.5% on April 24 amid easing inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI held steady at 5.9% annually—below prior Q1 projections of 6.3%—with full-year forecasts narrowed to 4.5–5.5% and Q2 expected at 5.9% before trending toward the 4% target. No-change odds at 17.5% capture caution over elevated core inflation around 4–5% annualized and persistent risks from war spending, while a hike at 2.5% remains negligible given the disinflation trajectory and low 2.1% unemployment. Upcoming May CPI and business sentiment data could influence final positioning.