Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no change in ECB deposit rate at the June 2026 meeting, with 35% for a 25 basis point increase amid surging Eurozone inflation. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year—up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy price shocks from Iran war tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 HICP forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady at 2.00% on March 19. Major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now project initial hikes in June, shifting sentiment from prior hold expectations, though ECB President Lagarde emphasized data-dependence. The April 30 policy decision looms as a pivotal catalyst for rate path clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 58%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 35%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$16,366 Vol.
$16,366 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
58%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
35%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
4%
No change 58%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 35%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$16,366 Vol.
$16,366 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,784 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,555 Vol.
<1%
No change
$3,649 Vol.
58%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,622 Vol.
35%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$3,756 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no change in ECB deposit rate at the June 2026 meeting, with 35% for a 25 basis point increase amid surging Eurozone inflation. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year—up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy price shocks from Iran war tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 HICP forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady at 2.00% on March 19. Major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now project initial hikes in June, shifting sentiment from prior hold expectations, though ECB President Lagarde emphasized data-dependence. The April 30 policy decision looms as a pivotal catalyst for rate path clarity.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$16,366Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no change in ECB deposit rate at the June 2026 meeting, with 35% for a 25 basis point increase amid surging Eurozone inflation. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year—up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy price shocks from Iran war tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 HICP forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady at 2.00% on March 19. Major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now project initial hikes in June, shifting sentiment from prior hold expectations, though ECB President Lagarde emphasized data-dependence. The April 30 policy decision looms as a pivotal catalyst for rate path clarity.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$16,366Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no change in ECB deposit rate at the June 2026 meeting, with 35% for a 25 basis point increase amid surging Eurozone inflation. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year—up from February's 1.9%—fueled by energy price shocks from Iran war tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 HICP forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady at 2.00% on March 19. Major banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs now project initial hikes in June, shifting sentiment from prior hold expectations, though ECB President Lagarde emphasized data-dependence. The April 30 policy decision looms as a pivotal catalyst for rate path clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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