Rising energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted April 2026 euro-area inflation to 3.0%, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly flagging intensified upside inflation risks and debating potential tightening. Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since signaled that a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting would likely be warranted absent sharp energy-price relief, aligning with the 86.5% market-implied probability. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need to contain second-round effects, tempered by the modest 12.4% odds of no change due to downside growth risks and any near-term de-escalation. The outcome will depend on incoming inflation prints and energy trajectories ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,327 Vol.
$356,327 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,327 Vol.
$356,327 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$66,006 Vol.
<1%
No change
$75,912 Vol.
12%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$87,819 Vol.
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$65,930 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Rising energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted April 2026 euro-area inflation to 3.0%, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly flagging intensified upside inflation risks and debating potential tightening. Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since signaled that a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting would likely be warranted absent sharp energy-price relief, aligning with the 86.5% market-implied probability. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need to contain second-round effects, tempered by the modest 12.4% odds of no change due to downside growth risks and any near-term de-escalation. The outcome will depend on incoming inflation prints and energy trajectories ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$356,327Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Rising energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted April 2026 euro-area inflation to 3.0%, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly flagging intensified upside inflation risks and debating potential tightening. Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since signaled that a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting would likely be warranted absent sharp energy-price relief, aligning with the 86.5% market-implied probability. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need to contain second-round effects, tempered by the modest 12.4% odds of no change due to downside growth risks and any near-term de-escalation. The outcome will depend on incoming inflation prints and energy trajectories ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$356,327Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rising energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted April 2026 euro-area inflation to 3.0%, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly flagging intensified upside inflation risks and debating potential tightening. Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since signaled that a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting would likely be warranted absent sharp energy-price relief, aligning with the 86.5% market-implied probability. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need to contain second-round effects, tempered by the modest 12.4% odds of no change due to downside growth risks and any near-term de-escalation. The outcome will depend on incoming inflation prints and energy trajectories ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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