Strong inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks have driven the 96% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3% in April, exceeding the 2% target by a full percentage point amid rising energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, while growth slowed to just 0.1% in the first quarter. The ECB held rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but adopted a more hawkish stance, highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and prompting economists in recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys to widely anticipate the June tightening to 2.25%. A decisive shift would require incoming data through early June to show clear moderation in price pressures or sharper economic contraction that alters the Governing Council’s assessment ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 96%
No change 3.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$552,011 Vol.
$552,011 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
96%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 96%
No change 3.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$552,011 Vol.
$552,011 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$101,808 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$106,684 Vol.
<1%
No change
$108,893 Vol.
3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$123,170 Vol.
96%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$111,455 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Strong inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks have driven the 96% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3% in April, exceeding the 2% target by a full percentage point amid rising energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, while growth slowed to just 0.1% in the first quarter. The ECB held rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but adopted a more hawkish stance, highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and prompting economists in recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys to widely anticipate the June tightening to 2.25%. A decisive shift would require incoming data through early June to show clear moderation in price pressures or sharper economic contraction that alters the Governing Council’s assessment ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$552,011Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Strong inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks have driven the 96% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3% in April, exceeding the 2% target by a full percentage point amid rising energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, while growth slowed to just 0.1% in the first quarter. The ECB held rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but adopted a more hawkish stance, highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and prompting economists in recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys to widely anticipate the June tightening to 2.25%. A decisive shift would require incoming data through early June to show clear moderation in price pressures or sharper economic contraction that alters the Governing Council’s assessment ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$552,011Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks have driven the 96% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3% in April, exceeding the 2% target by a full percentage point amid rising energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, while growth slowed to just 0.1% in the first quarter. The ECB held rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but adopted a more hawkish stance, highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and prompting economists in recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys to widely anticipate the June tightening to 2.25%. A decisive shift would require incoming data through early June to show clear moderation in price pressures or sharper economic contraction that alters the Governing Council’s assessment ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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