Recent energy price surges from Middle East tensions drove euro-area headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly debating tightening. Multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since flagged that June projections showing persistent upside risks would support a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This data-dependent hawkish tilt underpins the 87.0% market-implied probability of a 25 bps increase, with the 12.4% chance of no change reflecting uncertainty over growth impacts and any rapid energy-price reversal before the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,235 Vol.
$356,235 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,235 Vol.
$356,235 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$65,996 Vol.
<1%
No change
$75,862 Vol.
12%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$87,794 Vol.
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$65,930 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent energy price surges from Middle East tensions drove euro-area headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly debating tightening. Multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since flagged that June projections showing persistent upside risks would support a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This data-dependent hawkish tilt underpins the 87.0% market-implied probability of a 25 bps increase, with the 12.4% chance of no change reflecting uncertainty over growth impacts and any rapid energy-price reversal before the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$356,235Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent energy price surges from Middle East tensions drove euro-area headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly debating tightening. Multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since flagged that June projections showing persistent upside risks would support a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This data-dependent hawkish tilt underpins the 87.0% market-implied probability of a 25 bps increase, with the 12.4% chance of no change reflecting uncertainty over growth impacts and any rapid energy-price reversal before the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$356,235Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price surges from Middle East tensions drove euro-area headline inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% on April 30 while explicitly debating tightening. Multiple Governing Council members, including Bundesbank President Nagel, have since flagged that June projections showing persistent upside risks would support a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This data-dependent hawkish tilt underpins the 87.0% market-implied probability of a 25 bps increase, with the 12.4% chance of no change reflecting uncertainty over growth impacts and any rapid energy-price reversal before the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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